To win a DFS tournament, building a unique roster that embraces the randomness within each NFL game is essential. We must identify players and game scenarios the rest of the field is overlooking so that when these low-rostered plays hit, rosters soar past the competition and into first place.
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WR Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans (5% projected rostership)
Davis Mills has been sneakily cooking over his last three games, averaging 265 passing yards per game with five passing touchdowns. And now he will get his top wide receiver back from the COVID-19 list.
Cooks will be looking to build on his nuclear 102-yard and two-touchdown performance two weeks ago. The San Francisco 49ers boast a solid defensive reputation, but their secondary is extremely burnable. They have surrendered the following receiving lines over their last six games:
- A.J. Brown: 11-145-1
- Russell Gage: 8-91-1
- Tee Higgins: 5-114
- Ja’Marr Chase: 5-77-2
- Tyler Lockett: 7-68-1
- Adam Thielen: 5-62-2
San Francisco has simply been shredded by passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield. Here is the deep receiving production they have allowed over that same six-game stretch:
|140.9 passer rating||31st|
They are also allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt, 27th in the league, and have given up the sixth-most 15-plus-yard catches this year, with 36. Cooks is one of the league’s most prolific deep threats and has six catches, two touchdowns and 38.5 yards per reception on deep balls this season.
RB Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team (6% projected rostership)
The injury to J.D. McKissic has unlocked a fully loaded version of Gibson that impacts the game as both a runner and receiver. We know that the star Washington running back smashes as a runner in positive game scripts, ranking in the top-10 in the following rushing metrics:
|237 rush attempts||4th|
|889 rushing yards||8th|
|655 rushing yards after contact||6th|
|36 missed tackles forced on runs||8th|
However, Gibson’s game-script dependency is gone with McKissic on injured reserve. Over his last four games with McKissic out, Gibson has seen 20 targets (fifth-most among running backs), 15 catches (fourth), 96 yards (eighth) and two touchdowns (first).
Gibson is a three-down running back who is significantly underpriced at only $5,900 on DraftKings and $6,800 on FanDuel. Recency bias from the Football Team's atrocious performance against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football should significantly depress his rostership.
PFF's fantasy projections are extremely bullish on Gibson, ranking him as the overall RB6 this week. Compare that to his DraftKings price, which is all the way down at RB19.
QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (5% projected rostership)
The talented Eagles signal-caller is way too cheap for his dual-threat upside, at $6,600 on DraftKings and $7,900 on FanDuel. Hurts poured in 29.6 fantasy points with 296 passing yards and three total touchdowns in a matchup against this Washington defense just two weeks ago. And of course, who could forget the whooping that Dak Prescott put on Washington in Week 16.
Hurts is lethal as a runner, which is where he generates most of his fantasy value. He has also significantly improved as a passer in his second season, earning a 10th-ranked 80.1 PFF Grade.
Washington possesses a sub-par defense that Hurts should carve up via the air and ground. Here is the passing production they have allowed this season:
|4,203 passing yards||30th|
|33 passing touchdowns||32nd|
|7.8 yards per attempt||29th|
|109.7 passer rating||30th|