Fantasy News & Analysis

NFL Week 16 DFS Tournament Picks

Orchard Park, New York, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris (22) warms up prior to a game against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

To win a DFS tournament, building a unique roster that embraces the randomness within each NFL game is essential. We must identify players and game scenarios the rest of the field is overlooking so that when these low-rostered plays hit, rosters soar past the competition and into first place.

Here are this week's DFS tournament picks. Be sure to check out PFF's projected DFS rostership percentages and DFS lineup optimizer to help you rack up those massive scores.

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QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (2% projected rostership)

Burrow has just supplanted Tom Brady as PFF’s highest-graded quarterback this season (90.4) and is playing significantly better than his numbers suggest over the last few weeks. The best part is that we are getting a significant discount on his price at $5,900 on DraftKings, Burrow's lowest price tag since Week 4.

The Bengals signal-caller toasted the Ravens in their last matchup, racking up 416 yards and three touchdowns. The Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase stack won fantasy managers a lot of money that week, so let’s go right back to the well in this rematch.

Baltimore’s secondary is extremely banged up and has been an absolute sieve recently. Here is their coverage data since Week 10:

Stat Rank
7.6 yards per attempt 29th
10 touchdowns 29th
16 deep catches 20-plus yards downfield 32nd
35 catches of 15-plus yards 28th
16% rate of catches for 15-plus yards 30th

Pair Burrow with one or both of his top deep threats in Chase and Tee Higgins, two stud receivers who boast highly rated WR/CB matchups this week. You can also consider correlating this lineup with Marquise Brown, who will go overlooked, given Mark Andrews‘ recent dominance.

PFF’s fantasy projections rank Burrow as the overall QB10.

RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (6% projected rostership)

The Chiefs' run defense remains one of the most attackable units in the league. 

Stat Rank
4.6 yards per rush attempt 28th
12 rushing touchdowns 18th
101 rushing first downs 24th
2.8 rushing yards after contact per attempt 18th
1.7 rushing yards before contact per attempt 31st

 Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson combined for 181 total yards and a touchdown against Kansas City last week, and a second touchdown would have been up for grabs if not for a Joshua Kelley fumble on the one-yard line.

Harris is a true bell-cow running back. He has handled 250 carries, the third-most at the position, while his 62 receptions rank second. He is a reasonable $7,400 on DraftKings, his lowest price since Week 6.

Buy low here and bet on a bounce-back performance from the stud rookie — he will likely be under-owned after flopping with a measly 4.6 PPR fantasy points last week.

PFF's fantasy projections are incredibly high on Harris, ranking him as the No. 2 overall running back behind only Jonathan Taylor.

PFF's Player Props Tool reveals betting opportunities within player prop markets. Consensus lines and odds are displayed and can be adjusted to customize cover probability, break-even, and value percentages. The higher the value, the greater the opportunity.

WR Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears (4% projected rostership)

The Justin Fieldsto-Darnell Mooney connection is the lone bright spot in Chicago right now. It feels borderline disgusting to roster a Bears player, given the team's recent struggles, which is precisely what makes Mooney a fantastic DFS tournament play.

Mooney popped with back-to-back 100-yard performances in Weeks 11 and 12, but he has been quiet in the three games since despite seeing a healthy 19 targets. The Bears' new alpha receiver is due for another boom game, and a matchup with one of the league’s worst secondaries is just the spark he needs.

Here are Seattle’s coverage numbers since Week 10.

Stat Rank
159 completions 32nd
1,717 yards 32nd
36 catches of 15-plus yards 30th
8 touchdowns 23rd
7.7 yards per attempt 30th

 PFF fantasy analyst Andrew Erickson is exceptionally high on Mooney this week, putting him as the overall WR19 in his Week 16 fantasy rankings. In his weekly start/sit column, Erickson identified Mooney as a start because of his WR1 role, as Mooney tallied a massive 98% route rate on Monday night against the Vikings.

The Bears wideout will also see one of the top WR/CB matchups against a leaky Seattle defense with the fourth-best wide receiver strength of schedule rating.

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