To win a DFS tournament, building a unique roster that embraces the randomness within each NFL game is essential. We must identify players and game scenarios the rest of the field is overlooking so that when these low-rostered plays hit, rosters soar past the competition and into first place.
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QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (2% projected rostership)
Burrow has just supplanted Tom Brady as PFF’s highest-graded quarterback this season (90.4) and is playing significantly better than his numbers suggest over the last few weeks. The best part is that we are getting a significant discount on his price at $5,900 on DraftKings, Burrow's lowest price tag since Week 4.
The Bengals signal-caller toasted the Ravens in their last matchup, racking up 416 yards and three touchdowns. The Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase stack won fantasy managers a lot of money that week, so let’s go right back to the well in this rematch.
Baltimore’s secondary is extremely banged up and has been an absolute sieve recently. Here is their coverage data since Week 10:
|7.6 yards per attempt||29th|
|16 deep catches 20-plus yards downfield||32nd|
|35 catches of 15-plus yards||28th|
|16% rate of catches for 15-plus yards||30th|
Pair Burrow with one or both of his top deep threats in Chase and Tee Higgins, two stud receivers who boast highly rated WR/CB matchups this week. You can also consider correlating this lineup with Marquise Brown, who will go overlooked, given Mark Andrews‘ recent dominance.
PFF’s fantasy projections rank Burrow as the overall QB10.
RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (6% projected rostership)
The Chiefs' run defense remains one of the most attackable units in the league.
|4.6 yards per rush attempt||28th|
|12 rushing touchdowns||18th|
|101 rushing first downs||24th|
|2.8 rushing yards after contact per attempt||18th|
|1.7 rushing yards before contact per attempt||31st|
Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson combined for 181 total yards and a touchdown against Kansas City last week, and a second touchdown would have been up for grabs if not for a Joshua Kelley fumble on the one-yard line.
Harris is a true bell-cow running back. He has handled 250 carries, the third-most at the position, while his 62 receptions rank second. He is a reasonable $7,400 on DraftKings, his lowest price since Week 6.
Buy low here and bet on a bounce-back performance from the stud rookie — he will likely be under-owned after flopping with a measly 4.6 PPR fantasy points last week.
WR Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears (4% projected rostership)
The Justin Fields–to-Darnell Mooney connection is the lone bright spot in Chicago right now. It feels borderline disgusting to roster a Bears player, given the team's recent struggles, which is precisely what makes Mooney a fantastic DFS tournament play.
Mooney popped with back-to-back 100-yard performances in Weeks 11 and 12, but he has been quiet in the three games since despite seeing a healthy 19 targets. The Bears' new alpha receiver is due for another boom game, and a matchup with one of the league’s worst secondaries is just the spark he needs.
Here are Seattle’s coverage numbers since Week 10.
|36 catches of 15-plus yards||30th|
|7.7 yards per attempt||30th|
PFF fantasy analyst Andrew Erickson is exceptionally high on Mooney this week, putting him as the overall WR19 in his Week 16 fantasy rankings. In his weekly start/sit column, Erickson identified Mooney as a start because of his WR1 role, as Mooney tallied a massive 98% route rate on Monday night against the Vikings.