Fantasy News & Analysis

Premium Content Sign Up

DFS targets with the biggest fantasy point ceilings in Week 15

1. Cardinals (1): Don't believe in the league's only unbeaten team? Arizona also boasts the NFL's largest point differential (+111), is the toughest team to score on (16.3 points allowed per game), is getting defensive reinforcements off the COVID-19 list -- including OLB Chandler Jones -- and is already effectively integrating new TE Zach Ertz, the first player to catch a TD pass in successive weeks ... for different teams. Oh yeah ... and Kyler Murray. Syndication Usa Today

Our series of analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates uses the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups.


Click here for more PFF tools:

Rankings & Projections | WR/CB Matchup Chart | NFL & NCAA Betting Dashboards | NFL Player Props tool | NFL & NCAA Power Rankings


In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.

METHODOLOGY

For each game on the DFS Sunday main slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2014-2021 and found the closest analogies according to the following parameters: betting spread, over/under and average fantasy points scoring for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

Once I get the 75 most similar matchups for each upcoming game, I then simulate the main slate 10,000 times by randomly choosing one of the 75 matchups for each game. Then, I find the highest-scoring quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST on the slate.

The last step is totaling the number of times a particular team shows up as the top option for the slate at each position and dividing by the total simulations. That number is what I call “highest-scoring %” in the team-labeled bar charts below. Below the charts, I join the highest-projected player on that team for the position, then list their projected fantasy points and salaries for DraftKings and FanDuel.

You've got the first pick with your finances. Western Southern Financial Group.
Sponsor

QUARTERBACKS

Pos Highest % Player Team DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
QB 15.67 Kyler Murray ARZ 26.8 7,900 25.4 8,800
QB 8.08 Josh Allen BUF 24.6 8,100 23.1 8,700
QB 7.32 Jalen Hurts PHI 23.0 6,600 21.7 7,800
QB 7.20 Aaron Rodgers GB 20.8 7,500 19.6 7,600
QB 6.76 Jimmy Garoppolo SF 20.4 5,800 19.0 6,700
QB 6.15 Dak Prescott DAL 20.5 6,500 19.2 7,500
QB 5.63 Russell Wilson SEA 21.1 6,400 19.7 7,200
QB 5.42 Matthew Stafford LA 23.7 7,000 21.8 7,700
QB 4.52 Matt Ryan ATL 18.7 5,300 17.4 6,500
QB 4.44 Joe Burrow CIN 21.8 6,100 20.1 7,300
QB 4.10 Trevor Lawrence JAX 19.1 5,100 17.8 6,500
QB 3.84 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 21.5 5,700 20.2 7,400
QB 3.58 Lamar Jackson BLT 23.2 7,200 21.7 7,700
QB 3.45 Ryan Tannehill TEN 19.1 5,900 18.2 7,000
QB 3.36 Taylor Heinicke WAS 17.0 5,500 15.9 6,900
QB 2.95 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 15.6 5,600 14.6 6,600
QB 2.65 Jared Goff DET 10.4 5,100 9.9 6,400
QB 2.05 Davis Mills HST 17.8 5,400 16.5 6,800
QB 1.35 Cam Newton CAR 16.7 5,400 15.8 6,900
QB 1.34 Teddy Bridgewater DEN 18.7 5,500 17.5 6,600
QB 1.13 Mike Glennon NYG 14.4 5,200 13.5 6,700
QB 0.64 Zach Wilson NYJ 14.3 5,200 13.4 6,500
PFF's new Best Bets Tool allows you to take advantage of the best prop and game betting opportunities for each NFL slate during the 2021 season.

Subscribe to PFF Edge to continue reading

Already have a subscription? Sign In

You've got the first pick with your finances. Western Southern Financial Group.
Sponsor

Fantasy Featured Tools

  • Sort projected player stats and fantasy points by position, week, and category.

    Available with

    Edge
  • Available with

    Edge
  • PFF's Fantasy Football Expected Points tool is primarily used for identifying potential over and undervalued players.

    Available with

    Elite
  • Research past fantasy performance with sortable player stats including PFF-exclusives like aDOT and fantasy points per opportunity.

    Available with

    Edge
  • PFF’s Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position.

    Available with

    Edge
Pro Subscriptions

Unlock NFL Player Grades, Fantasy & NFL Draft

$9.99 / mo
$39.99 / yr

Unlock Premium Stats, PFF Greenline & DFS

$34.99 / mo
$199.99 / yr