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Best DFS stacks to play in Week 14

Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) motions on the line of scrimmage against the Buffalo Bills during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

This analysis of DFS main-slate stacks is a variation of the methodology used in analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates. It uses the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups.

I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each team’s QB-WR, RB-DST, QB-WR-TE, QB-RB-WR stacks will be the highest-scoring of the slate. These are some of the most popular stack combinations employed in DFS strategy.

The information below is entirely in the form of plots and tables. If you’d like additional information and analysis on the same methodology broken out by position, please refer to the positional piece that also comes out every week.

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METHODOLOGY

For each game on the DFS Sunday main slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2014-2021 and found the closest analogies according to the following parameters: betting spread, over/under, average fantasy points scoring for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

Once I get the 75 most similar matchups for each upcoming game, I simulate the main slate 10,000 times by randomly choosing one of the 75 matchups for each game and then find the highest-scoring QB-WR, RB-DST, QB-WR-TE and QB-RB-WR stacks on the simulated slate.

Every match of historical and current games is not perfect, but the simulation allows us to smooth out the bumps and get a strong picture of how a slate of similar games would have played out.

The last step is totaling up the number of times a particular team shows up as the top stack for each of the three stacks projected and then dividing that number by the total simulations. That number is what I call “highest scoring %” on the y-axis of the plots below labeled by team logo. Below the plots by team, I join the highest projected players that make up the stacks for that team and list their projected fantasy points and salaries for DraftKings and FanDuel.

HOW TO VIEW THE PLOTS

Each plot below has every team on the main slate positioned by the combined salary of the stack and the percentage of time that team’s stack was the highest scorer in the simulations.

One way to look at them is that anything above the dashed horizontal line is a good scoring stack, and anything to the right of the dashed vertical line is a high-priced stack. You should pay most attention to the upper-right (high-scoring and high-priced) and upper-left (high-scoring and low-priced) quadrants. Ideally, you’ll find something in the upper-left that you’re confident in, but often paying up and moving into the upper-right can be beneficial.

QUARTERBACK/WIDE RECEIVER STACK

QB/WR players

Team Highest % Player Pos DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
KC 10.3 Patrick Mahomes QB 23.4 8,000 21.9 8,500
KC 10.3 Tyreek Hill WR 20.8 8,500 16.4 8,700
SF 9.7 Jimmy Garoppolo QB 17.0 5,800 15.9 6,700
SF 9.7 Brandon Aiyuk WR 13.6 5,800 10.8 6,400
LAC 7.6 Justin Herbert QB 23.9 7,100 22.2 8,400
LAC 7.6 Mike Williams WR 15.8 6,000 12.8 6,900
TB 7.5 Tom Brady QB 22.1 7,600 20.4 8,200
TB 7.5 Chris Godwin WR 14.8 7,100 11.6 7,700
DAL 7.0 Dak Prescott QB 20.5 6,700 19.2 8,100
DAL 7.0 CeeDee Lamb WR 14.0 7,200 11.2 7,800
BUF 6.8 Josh Allen QB 23.2 7,800 21.6 8,800
BUF 6.8 Stefon Diggs WR 18.1 8,100 14.1 8,200
ATL 6.2 Matt Ryan QB 16.8 5,300 15.8 6,800
ATL 6.2 Russell Gage WR 10.2 5,700 7.9 6,200
NO 4.6 Taysom Hill QB 17.8 5,600 16.9 7,700
NO 4.6 Tre'Quan Smith WR 9.1 4,800 7.4 5,600
WAS 4.4 Taylor Heinicke QB 17.5 5,500 16.5 7,100
WAS 4.4 Terry McLaurin WR 15.8 7,000 12.4 7,100
CLV 4.3 Baker Mayfield QB 15.7 5,200 14.9 6,500
CLV 4.3 Jarvis Landry WR 12.8 5,400 10.1 6,400
DET 4.2 Jared Goff QB 15.2 5,100 14.2 6,400
DET 4.2 Josh Reynolds WR 10.3 4,100 8.2 5,300
BLT 4.1 Lamar Jackson QB 22.6 7,400 21.1 7,900
BLT 4.1 Marquise Brown WR 11.5 6,300 9.0 7,000
NYJ 3.1 Zach Wilson QB 13.3 5,300 12.6 6,600
NYJ 3.1 Elijah Moore WR 11.6 5,900 9.2 6,300
HST 3.1 Davis Mills QB 18.2 5,000 16.7 6,600
HST 3.1 Brandin Cooks WR 17.5 5,700 13.6 6,500
CIN 3.1 Joe Burrow QB 20.5 6,000 19.0 7,100
CIN 3.1 Ja'Marr Chase WR 18.1 6,900 14.4 7,200
JAX 3.0 Trevor Lawrence QB 16.5 5,100 15.4 6,300
JAX 3.0 Marvin Jones Jr. WR 12.3 4,500 9.8 5,400
NYG 3.0 Jake Fromm QB 13.1 4,800 12.4 6,000
NYG 3.0 Kenny Golladay WR 11.7 4,800 9.5 5,500
TEN 3.0 Ryan Tannehill QB 21.4 6,400 20.4 7,300
TEN 3.0 Julio Jones WR 11.4 5,400 9.3 6,500
SEA 2.3 Russell Wilson QB 22.5 6,600 21.2 7,500
SEA 2.3 D.K. Metcalf WR 18.0 6,500 14.4 7,300
DEN 1.8 Teddy Bridgewater QB 19.6 5,700 18.6 7,200
DEN 1.8 Jerry Jeudy WR 12.5 5,600 10.2 6,300
LV 1.5 Derek Carr QB 16.7 5,900 15.6 7,200
LV 1.5 Hunter Renfrow WR 13.0 6,100 10.0 6,700
CAR 0.7 Cam Newton QB 19.2 5,400 18.2 7,400
CAR 0.7 D.J. Moore WR 17.7 6,200 13.9 6,800

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