Week 10 DraftKings Thursday Night Football Showdown: Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens | Fantasy Football News, Rankings and Projections | PFF

Fantasy News & Analysis

Premium Content Sign Up

Week 10 DraftKings Thursday Night Football Showdown: Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown (5) makes a catch before the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The changing DFS and fantasy football landscape is shifting toward single-game contests. At DraftKings Sportsbook, the biggest is their Showdown Captain Mode format. The format blends the ease of focusing on a single game with the ability to differentiate yourself from the competition by choosing six players.

The biggest wrinkle of the format is the ability to choose one captain (CPT), who costs and is scored at 1.5 times the standard values. The CPT designation opens up another layer of strategy while exponentially increasing the number of possible lineup combinations, which is important for reducing duplicate winners and split prizes. I wrote a primer on playing this format, with details on historical positional trends and salary usage.

Click here for more PFF tools:

Rankings & ProjectionsWR/CB Matchup ChartNFL & NCAA Betting DashboardsNFL Player Props toolNFL & NCAA Power Rankings


This season, I will analyze all of the NFL’s “island” games (TNF, SNF and MNF) and playoff matchups, utilizing PFF’s weekly projections, current betting lines, and millions of simulated historical combinations to identify the best and worst values for an upcoming matchup.

There are five main components to this Week 10 Showdown slate analysis that you’ll find below:

1. A breakdown of methodology and the most similar historical matchup to Baltimore RavensMiami Dolphins as an illustration of the matching process: 2021 Week 3 Buffalo BillsWashington Football Team, featuring Josh Allen as Lamar Jackson and Taylor Heinicke playing the role of Jacoby Brissett.

2. Optimal lineup allocations (CPT and total roster) for both teams based on the results of similar historical matchups.

3. Comparison of player ownership projections for FLEX and CPT produced by a model trained on 2018-2020 Showdown contest results to optimal allocations.

4. Recent CPT ownership trends illustrated for both starting lineups.

5. A table showing the most common players on optimal lineups for each player. This lets you see which other players are commonly found on the same optimal lineups as a player you’re interested in rostering.

METHODOLOGY

To analyze this specific Showdown slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2014 to 2021 and found the closest analogies to this contest according to the following parameters: Betting spread, over/under and average fantasy points scoring for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

I won’t detail every matchup that falls into the top 100 for this game, but for illustration purposes, let’s look at the most similar matchup:

Historical Current
Player Pos Team Player Pos Team
Josh Allen QB BUF Lamar Jackson QB BAL
Devin Singletary RB BUF Devonta Freeman RB BAL
Stefon Diggs WR BUF Marquise Brown WR BAL
Dawson Knox TE BUF Mark Andrews TE BAL
Taylor Heinicke QB WAS Jacoby Brissett QB MIA
J.D. McKissic RB WAS Myles Gaskin RB MIA
Terry McLaurin WR WAS Jaylen Waddle WR MIA
Logan Thomas TE WAS Mike Gesicki TE MIA

The optimal roster for that historical matchup, assuming positional salaries equaled what they are for this showdown slate, would have been:The spread and over/under are similar in these matchups (Bills -7 45.5 O/U versus this matchup at Ravens -7.5, 46.5 O/U). All the players aren’t perfect matches, but that’s why we use 100 similar matchups and not just the single most similar.

Player Team Position Roster Position Fantasy Pts
Josh Allen BUF QB CPT 40.2
Emmanuel Sanders BUF WR FLEX 26.4
Taylor Heinicke WAS QB FLEX 22.6
Cole Beasley BUF WR FLEX 20.8
Zack Moss BUF RB FLEX 18.1
Antonio Gibson WAS RB FLEX 17.4

For this game and 99 other similar matchups, I calculated every possible combination that fits with Showdown rules (one CPT, at least one offensive player from each team) and would fall under the $50K salary threshold, assuming the salaries for the historical similar matchups are the same as those for this contest.

CHOOSING THE RIGHT CAPTAIN

The most unique part of the format, and therefore the biggest opportunity for a competitive advantage, is choosing your CPT. Should you always choose a QB who typically has the highest absolute fantasy scoring? Are defenses and kickers viable options? RB versus WR?

Subscribe to PFF Edge to continue reading

Already have a subscription? Sign In

Tackle Lifes financial Challenges. Western Southern Financial Group.
Sponsor

Fantasy Featured Tools

  • Sort projected player stats and fantasy points by position, week, and category.

    Available with

    Edge
  • Available with

    Edge
  • PFF's Fantasy Football Expected Points tool is primarily used for identifying potential over and undervalued players.

    Available with

    Elite
  • Research past fantasy performance with sortable player stats including PFF-exclusives like aDOT and fantasy points per opportunity.

    Available with

    Edge
  • PFF’s Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position.

    Available with

    Edge
Pro Subscriptions

Unlock NFL Player Grades, Fantasy & NFL Draft

$9.99 / mo
$39.99 / yr

Unlock Premium Stats, PFF Greenline & DFS

$34.99 / mo
$199.99 / yr