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DFS data dive: The highest fantasy football ceilings of Week 1

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) against the New York Jets at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Key to DFS success: Random combinations of historically similar matchups can identify counterintuitive and lower-cost DFS options with exceeding upside.

Best relative DFS values: Jalen Hurts and Matt Ryan at quarterback, James Conner and Mike Davis at running back, Rashod Bateman and Christian Kirk at wide receiver, Mo Alie-Cox and Daniel Bellinger at tight end, and the Baltimore Ravens and Carolina Panthers at defense are the best values relative to their DFS price for Week 1.

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

I publish analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates that use the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.

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QUARTERBACKS

 

Highest %

Player Team Opponent DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
10.7 Jalen Hurts PHI DET 24.7 6,800 23.1 8,000
10.3 Patrick Mahomes KC ARZ 25.2 7,700 23.4 8,700
8.0 Derek Carr LV LAC 20.2 5,900 18.6 7,400
7.8 Matt Ryan IND HST 19.9 5,500 18.6 6,900
7.7 Justin Herbert LAC LV 23.5 7,600 21.9 8,400
7.0 Aaron Rodgers GB MIN 23.3 7,000 21.8 7,800
6.9 Lamar Jackson BLT NYJ 23.1 7,300 21.7 8,500
4.7 Ryan Tannehill TEN NYG 19.1 5,700 18.2 7,100
4.4 Joe Burrow CIN PIT 22.4 6,400 20.7 7,700
4.3 Kyler Murray ARZ KC 22.2 7,200 20.9 8,200
4.0 Trevor Lawrence JAX WAS 17.3 5,600 16.1 7,000
3.1 Kirk Cousins MIN GB 18.9 6,100 17.4 7,300
2.7 Trey Lance SF CHI 21.0 6,000 19.8 7,500
2.5 Tua Tagovailoa MIA NE 18.8 5,700 17.5 7,000
2.5 Jameis Winston NO ATL 15.7 5,300 14.8 6,700
2.1 Daniel Jones NYG TEN 19.0 5,000 17.7 7,100
2.0 Joe Flacco NYJ BLT 13.3 4,800 12.3 6,200
1.7 Mitchell Trubisky PIT CIN 11.0 5,000 10.6 6,400
1.5 Davis Mills HST IND 17.9 5,300 16.5 6,500
1.5 Mac Jones NE MIA 17.2 5,400 16.1 6,600
1.3 Justin Fields CHI SF 16.2 5,600 15.1 6,900
1.3 Marcus Mariota ATL NO 13.2 5,200 12.6 6,500
1.2 Baker Mayfield CAR CLV 14.9 5,300 14.0 6,600
1.2 Jared Goff DET PHI 16.3 5,400 15.2 6,800
1.0 Jacoby Brissett CLV CAR 17.6 5,200 16.5 6,300
0.4 Carson Wentz WAS JAX 18.6 5,500 17.4 6,800

 


RUNNING BACKS

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