• Key to DFS success: Random combinations of historically similar matchups can identify counterintuitive and lower-cost DFS options with exceeding upside.
• Best relative DFS values: Jalen Hurts and Matt Ryan at quarterback, James Conner and Mike Davis at running back, Rashod Bateman and Christian Kirk at wide receiver, Mo Alie-Cox and Daniel Bellinger at tight end, and the Baltimore Ravens and Carolina Panthers at defense are the best values relative to their DFS price for Week 1.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
I publish analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates that use the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.
QUARTERBACKS
|
Highest % |
Player | Team | Opponent | DK Fpts | DK Salary | FD Fpts | FD Salary |
| 10.7 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | DET | 24.7 | 6,800 | 23.1 | 8,000 |
| 10.3 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | ARZ | 25.2 | 7,700 | 23.4 | 8,700 |
| 8.0 | Derek Carr | LV | LAC | 20.2 | 5,900 | 18.6 | 7,400 |
| 7.8 | Matt Ryan | IND | HST | 19.9 | 5,500 | 18.6 | 6,900 |
| 7.7 | Justin Herbert | LAC | LV | 23.5 | 7,600 | 21.9 | 8,400 |
| 7.0 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | MIN | 23.3 | 7,000 | 21.8 | 7,800 |
| 6.9 | Lamar Jackson | BLT | NYJ | 23.1 | 7,300 | 21.7 | 8,500 |
| 4.7 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | NYG | 19.1 | 5,700 | 18.2 | 7,100 |
| 4.4 | Joe Burrow | CIN | PIT | 22.4 | 6,400 | 20.7 | 7,700 |
| 4.3 | Kyler Murray | ARZ | KC | 22.2 | 7,200 | 20.9 | 8,200 |
| 4.0 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | WAS | 17.3 | 5,600 | 16.1 | 7,000 |
| 3.1 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | GB | 18.9 | 6,100 | 17.4 | 7,300 |
| 2.7 | Trey Lance | SF | CHI | 21.0 | 6,000 | 19.8 | 7,500 |
| 2.5 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | NE | 18.8 | 5,700 | 17.5 | 7,000 |
| 2.5 | Jameis Winston | NO | ATL | 15.7 | 5,300 | 14.8 | 6,700 |
| 2.1 | Daniel Jones | NYG | TEN | 19.0 | 5,000 | 17.7 | 7,100 |
| 2.0 | Joe Flacco | NYJ | BLT | 13.3 | 4,800 | 12.3 | 6,200 |
| 1.7 | Mitchell Trubisky | PIT | CIN | 11.0 | 5,000 | 10.6 | 6,400 |
| 1.5 | Davis Mills | HST | IND | 17.9 | 5,300 | 16.5 | 6,500 |
| 1.5 | Mac Jones | NE | MIA | 17.2 | 5,400 | 16.1 | 6,600 |
| 1.3 | Justin Fields | CHI | SF | 16.2 | 5,600 | 15.1 | 6,900 |
| 1.3 | Marcus Mariota | ATL | NO | 13.2 | 5,200 | 12.6 | 6,500 |
| 1.2 | Baker Mayfield | CAR | CLV | 14.9 | 5,300 | 14.0 | 6,600 |
| 1.2 | Jared Goff | DET | PHI | 16.3 | 5,400 | 15.2 | 6,800 |
| 1.0 | Jacoby Brissett | CLV | CAR | 17.6 | 5,200 | 16.5 | 6,300 |
| 0.4 | Carson Wentz | WAS | JAX | 18.6 | 5,500 | 17.4 | 6,800 |
RUNNING BACKS
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