- Key to DFS success: Random combinations of historically similar matchups can identify counterintuitive and lower-cost DFS options with exceeding upside.
- Best relative DFS values: Tua Tagovailoa and Kirk Cousins at quarterback, Kenneth Walker and Raheem Mostert at running back, Drake London at wide receiver and Mike Gesicki at tight end in addition to the Indianapolis Colts and Seattle Seahawks defenses are the best values relative to their DFS price for Week 8.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
I publish analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates that use the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.
QUARTERBACKS
| Highest % | Player | Team | Opponent | DK Fpts | DK Salary | FD Fpts | FD Salary |
| 9.9 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | DET | 22.1 | 6,200 | 20.5 | 7,700 |
| 9.3 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | PIT | 25.4 | 8,300 | 23.9 | 9,200 |
| 8.0 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | ARZ | 20.8 | 6,100 | 19.3 | 7,800 |
| 7.3 | Kyler Murray | ARZ | MIN | 21.2 | 7,500 | 19.9 | 8,200 |
| 7.1 | Derek Carr | LV | NO | 19.2 | 5,900 | 17.8 | 7,200 |
| 6.9 | Jared Goff | DET | MIA | 16.4 | 5,500 | 15.3 | 7,300 |
| 6.7 | Andy Dalton | NO | LV | 18.6 | 5,500 | 17.4 | 7,100 |
| 6.6 | Geno Smith | SEA | NYG | 20.1 | 5,800 | 18.7 | 7,000 |
| 5.6 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | HST | 19.1 | 5,300 | 18.2 | 6,700 |
| 4.9 | Marcus Mariota | ATL | CAR | 21.6 | 5,400 | 20.2 | 6,900 |
| 4.7 | Matthew Stafford | LA | SF | 19.8 | 6,000 | 18.4 | 7,000 |
| 4.1 | Davis Mills | HST | TEN | 19.1 | 5,200 | 17.5 | 6,500 |
| 3.5 | Dak Prescott | DAL | CHI | 21.1 | 6,600 | 19.7 | 7,200 |
| 3.5 | Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | LA | 16.2 | 5,600 | 15.1 | 7,100 |
| 2.9 | Sam Ehlinger | IND | WAS | 17.6 | 5,000 | 16.6 | 6,000 |
| 2.5 | Daniel Jones | NYG | SEA | 21.5 | 5,700 | 20.2 | 7,500 |
| 2.4 | Taylor Heinicke | WAS | IND | 16.6 | 5,200 | 15.6 | 6,400 |
| 1.6 | Zach Wilson | NYJ | NE | 15.7 | 5,100 | 14.8 | 6,400 |
| 1.5 | P.J. Walker | CAR | ATL | 17.4 | 5,200 | 16.1 | 6,600 |
| 1.3 | Kenny Pickett | PIT | PHI | 16.2 | 5,100 | 15.2 | 6,600 |
| 0.7 | Mac Jones | NE | NYJ | 15.1 | 5,300 | 14.3 | 6,600 |
| 0.7 | Justin Fields | CHI | DAL | 15.3 | 5,200 | 14.2 | 6,500 |
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