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DFS data dive: Highest fantasy football ceilings of NFL Week 8

Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) throws a pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

I publish analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates that use the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.


QUARTERBACKS

Highest % Player Team Opponent DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
9.9 Tua Tagovailoa MIA DET 22.1 6,200 20.5 7,700
9.3 Jalen Hurts PHI PIT 25.4 8,300 23.9 9,200
8.0 Kirk Cousins MIN ARZ 20.8 6,100 19.3 7,800
7.3 Kyler Murray ARZ MIN 21.2 7,500 19.9 8,200
7.1 Derek Carr LV NO 19.2 5,900 17.8 7,200
6.9 Jared Goff DET MIA 16.4 5,500 15.3 7,300
6.7 Andy Dalton NO LV 18.6 5,500 17.4 7,100
6.6 Geno Smith SEA NYG 20.1 5,800 18.7 7,000
5.6 Ryan Tannehill TEN HST 19.1 5,300 18.2 6,700
4.9 Marcus Mariota ATL CAR 21.6 5,400 20.2 6,900
4.7 Matthew Stafford LA SF 19.8 6,000 18.4 7,000
4.1 Davis Mills HST TEN 19.1 5,200 17.5 6,500
3.5 Dak Prescott DAL CHI 21.1 6,600 19.7 7,200
3.5 Jimmy Garoppolo SF LA 16.2 5,600 15.1 7,100
2.9 Sam Ehlinger IND WAS 17.6 5,000 16.6 6,000
2.5 Daniel Jones NYG SEA 21.5 5,700 20.2 7,500
2.4 Taylor Heinicke WAS IND 16.6 5,200 15.6 6,400
1.6 Zach Wilson NYJ NE 15.7 5,100 14.8 6,400
1.5 P.J. Walker CAR ATL 17.4 5,200 16.1 6,600
1.3 Kenny Pickett PIT PHI 16.2 5,100 15.2 6,600
0.7 Mac Jones NE NYJ 15.1 5,300 14.3 6,600
0.7 Justin Fields CHI DAL 15.3 5,200 14.2 6,500

RUNNING BACKS

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