Boom/bust report: Which Week 4 DFS options could pop?

Boom – to flourish vigorously
Bust – a worthless thing

Daily fantasy sports is a hyper-nuanced game. Theory can inform personal ownership stakes, or desirable plays can be identified and then analyzed for fit. I prefer the latter method. Which players do I want to be heavier on than the field, and which players do I want to be light on, or avoid entirely? The boom/bust report will feature players that fit the following descriptions: a boom is a high-priced stud with favorable conditions to hit 3x value, or a lower priced player with favorable conditions to hit 4x value. A bust is any player with unfavorable conditions to hit 3x value, regardless of salary.

Below, we’re looking at some candidates to have particularly good (or bad) Week 4 outings.

(Prices and advice based on DraftKings salaries)

Week 4 booms

Quarterback

Jared Goff ($5600, QB16) @ Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have allowed over 550 passing yards and six passing touchdowns over the past two weeks to Trevor Siemian and Carson Palmer. Many will recommend Cam Newton here against the Patriots, but I prefer Goff, who has already hit 4x value on DraftKings twice this season. Coach Sean McVay knows how to attack the Cowboys defense through the air, having led Kirk Cousins to post over 800 yards in two games versus Dallas in 2016.

Running back

Leonard Fournette ($6700, RB8) @ New York Jets
Fournette has scored a rushing touchdown in all three games this season. The Jets defense is allowing the seventh-most PPR points per game to running backs, including three rushing touchdowns. The Jaguars should be running early and often, as three-point road favorites in a game with the lowest over/under of the slate.

Wide receiver

Odell Beckham Jr. ($8900, WR2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Beckham gets a great draw against a must-target defense for fantasy wide receivers in 2017: Tampa Bay. The Bucs were just torched by Stefon Diggs and a backup quarterback. Beckham scored two difficult touchdowns last week and health did not seem to be a factor. The last time he went to Tampa Bay, Beckham caught nine balls and hit the three point bonus with 105 yards.

Tight end

Jared Cook ($3400, TE13) @ Denver Broncos

Cook is off to a hot start in 2017 with at least four receptions in all three games. He hit 4x his salary in Week 3, and now faces a Denver defense that allowed six receptions and a touchdown to Charles Clay last week. Look for Cook to post his best game of the season as the Oakland wide receivers draw stiff coverage from Denver’s top-rated cornerback corps.

Week 4 busts

Quarterback

Ben Roethlisberger ($6000, QB8) @ Baltimore Ravens

Big Ben has struggled mightily on the road against the Ravens in recent seasons, posting just 482 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in their last two matchups in Baltimore. The Ravens also rank fourth-best in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks at just 11.1 points per game.

Running back

C.J. Anderson ($5600, RB14) vs. Oakland Raiders

The Raiders have held all opposing RB1s to fewer than 55 yards rushing this season. I don't like Anderson against a Raiders defense that has yet to allow a rushing touchdown and is more vulnerable to running backs as receivers versus rushers. Anderson has just eight targets through three games.

Wide receiver

Antonio Brown ($9300, WR1) @ Baltimore Ravens

You might have expected this after I called Roethlisberger a Week 4 bust above. Brown has never eclipsed 100 receiving yards and has just one career receiving touchdown against Baltimore on the road. Baltimore is also a top-five defense in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers this season.

Tight end

Jason Witten ($5000, TE3) vs. Los Angeles Rams

The future Hall of Famer might be needed as a blocker against the Rams’ formidable defensive front. Los Angeles has held opposing tight ends to just 11 receptions in three games and has surrendered just one touchdown to the position. This game looks to be more about Ezekiel Elliott as the Rams are more vulnerable against the run than the pass. There are tight end values all over the board this week, don't pay up for Witten.