Through the first three weeks of the NFL season, most of the leaders in blitz targets look pretty similar to the leaders in total targets. The likes of Julio Jones (12), Doug Baldwin (12), Antonio Brown (11) and DeAndre Hopkins (11) are among the nine players already in double-digits. But the top two players in blitz targets may surprise you a bit. They are Marqise Lee (16) and T.Y. Hilton (14), both of whom I discuss below. The research I did over the offseason shows that that players such as Lee and Hilton provide security blankets for their quarterbacks against blitz-heavy teams while other players see fewer targets. Let’s go through the players to target and avoid in Week 4.
Players to target
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Entering Week 3, the general consensus was that Andrew Luck’s continued absence had torpedoed Hilton’s fantasy value, relegating him to WR3 status or worse. Then, Sunday happened. With 153 yards and a score, Hilton finished top five in fantasy points at the position. And while many will justifiably point to the Cleveland matchup as Hilton’s primary benefactor, I believe that their defensive approach had as much to do with Hilton’s success as the quality of their defenders. Incredibly, eight of Hilton’s nine targets came on blitzes. Looking back, that’s nothing new. Over the first two weeks, Hilton had more blitz targets than non-blitz targets.
| T.Y. Hilton's Blitz Target Splits, 2017 | ||||
| Non-Blitz | Blitz | |||
| Week | Tgts | Yards | Tgts | Yards |
| 1 | 3 | 32 | 4 | 25 |
| 2 | 2 | 19 | 2 | 30 |
| 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 149 |
And blitzing seems to be the consensus strategy to take against the Colts’ inexperienced quarterbacks. Both the Rams and Cardinals blitzed on more than half of the Colts’ pass plays, and the Cardinals blitzed a third of the Colts’ pass plays.
| Colts' Opponent Blitz Rates, 2017 | |||
| Week | Opponent | Proj Blitz% | Blitz% |
| 1 | Rams | 24.5% | 50.0% |
| 2 | Cardinals | 38.7% | 34.9% |
| 3 | Browns | 31.4% | 58.6% |
Even though the Colts beat the Browns and Hilton has an excellent fantasy day, it’s difficult to claim that their opponents’ blitz tendencies haven’t worked. For the season, the Colts minus-37-point differential is the worst in football. This week, the Colts face the Seahawks. In the preseason, I projected them to blitz 27.9 percent of the time. However, so far this season, they’ve been a top-10 blitzing team at 33.6 percent. If patterns hold, I expect the Seahawks to blitz even more against the Colts, which could create another productive fantasy day for Hilton.
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