Stacking is essential to success in DFS GPPs. The average user who submits a handful of lineups on any one DFS slate doesn’t stack nearly enough in their lineups. The art of stacking is a way to increase variance, which is the only option that offers enough upside to win a GPP tournament. An overlooked approach is the game-level stack, which takes not only a quarterback and pass-catching option but also runs it back with a pass-catcher or running back from the opposing team.
We see in our introductory article on stacking that if we hit on the correct quarterback and wide receiver to stack, a player from the opposing team is typically going to be worthwhile to pair with this combination to apply more lineup correlation into your roster builds.
This provides inherent upside to our lineups — if we hit on the correct quarterback, two or more additional lineup spots are typically hit on by the simple fact that they are highly correlated to our quarterback play. If your quarterback is a miss, the rest of your lineup is likely in a similar situation, as it is hard to pull off a quality finish in a GPP contest with a dud at the signal-caller position.
Focusing on this approach of identifying quarterbacks who could be hits, we have built a model to project who is most likely to finish as the highest-scoring quarterback on the main slate based on fantasy projections, opponent-adjusted grades and betting market lines. Utilizing correlations for how fantasy points are distributed at the game level, we can then see the correct framework for how to approach roster construction for a game stack.
WEEK 7 REVIEW
The leaderboard was littered with game stacks from the Sunday night matchup in Week 7. We had this stack identified in the article but failed to pivot from D.K. Metcalf to Tyler Lockett in the writeup. Lockett was the required piece — with a need to squeeze in Davante Adams for top-of-the-leaderboard success. Cheap running backs were the correct approach, despite heavy ownership, as they opened up salaries for Lockett, Adams, Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins.
Our Chargers stack made a couple of appearances. Avoiding Hunter Henry while sliding in James Robinson was the ideal approach in Week 7. Joe Burrow also made it into a handful of lineups in the top 10 stacked with Tyler Boyd. The run-it-back option failed to materialize despite a late touchdown by Kareem Hunt.
Russell Wilson was the seventh-highest owned quarterback in the Milly Maker, at 6.3%. He was paired with Tyler Lockett in 2.7% of lineups. Swapping in D.K. Metcalf for Lockett increased ownership by a full percentage point. Tacking on DeAndre Hopkins once again cut down ownership issues, with the trio featuring in .6% of lineups.
At this level of ownership compared to the field, it is easy to make a unique lineup playing any of the options at the other positions. That made it incorrect to fade a player like Jamaal Williams or Giovani Bernard because of ownership. Fading Williams because of ownership but plugging in Alvin Kamara was not the correct process.
The mean total for Week 8 continues to fall off from early-season numbers, dropping two full points from the Week 5 high point. Scoring is still up overall on the season, which should cause game-level stack ownership to be spread out. There is no obvious chalk, meaning to load up on a situation if you have a conviction about a certain play or game.
This model is overly excited about a potential shootout between Indianapolis and Detroit. It is not affected by the weather and one of the only game totals to hold close to the opening number. Green Bay-Minnesota is slightly lower than I expected but still pops up enough to mention.
Let’s dive into the best stacks for Week 8 based on our model predictions for games that could involve the highest-scoring players at each position.
The highest total of Week 8 has the second-best probability to produce the highest-scoring quarterback, according to our model. Our PFF Greenline model also sides with the over on the game total, with the 53.5 number falling just short of offering value. The betting market percentages both lean toward the over, which could indicate DFS ownership gravitating to this matchup.