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Best NFL game stacks to target for DFS GPPs in Week 16

Dec 20, 2020; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (2) celebrates a touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals in the first half at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Stacking is essential to success in DFS guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs). The average user who submits a handful of lineups on any one DFS slate doesn’t stack nearly enough in their lineups. The art of stacking is a way to increase variance, which is the only option that offers enough upside to win a GPP tournament.

An overlooked approach is the game-level stack, which takes not only a quarterback and pass-catching option but also runs it back with a pass-catcher or running back from the opposing team.

We see in our introductory article on stacking that if we hit on the correct quarterback and wide receiver to stack, a player from the opposing team is typically going to be worthwhile to pair with this combination to apply more lineup correlation into your roster builds.

This provides inherent upside to our lineups — if we hit on the correct quarterback, two or more additional lineup spots are typically hit on by the simple fact that they are highly correlated to our quarterback play. If your quarterback is a miss, the rest of your lineup is likely in a similar situation, as it is hard to pull off a quality finish in a GPP contest with a dud at the signal-caller position.

Focusing on this approach of identifying potential hits at quarterbacks, we have built a model to project who is most likely to finish as the highest-scoring quarterback on the main slate based on fantasy projections, opponent-adjusted grades and betting market lines. Utilizing correlations for how fantasy points are distributed at the game level, we can then see the correct framework for how to approach roster construction for a game stack.

WEEK 15 REVIEW

Once again, a near-perfect lineup featuring naked Jalen Hurts won the small buy-in Milly Maker tournament on Draftkings. The lineup did have some correlated game plays, but it was one of the most unique builds you will see from a Milly Maker winner. Second place at least had DeAndre Hopkins as the run-it-back option with Hurts, which was the most common build for lineups in the top 10.

Matt Ryan to Calvin Ridley had a significant hit rate, but no one outside of Leonard Fournette provided enough upside in the run-it-back option. The Falcons-heavy stack that included Russell Gage and Antonio Brown swept the majority of higher buy-in contests on DraftKings.

Only one game has a total above 50 on the main slate of DFS action for Week 16. Atlanta versus Kansas City should see plenty of ownership, but the Chiefs stack disappointed numerous DFS players last week. It’s possible that people overthink this setup, as Kansas City looks to always be a playable stack from a DFS perspective. Other games should fly under the radar, with only a few offering shootout potential.

In general, we should once again see spread-out ownership among game stacks, as the best option has the widest spread this weekend.

Let’s take a closer look at the games that this model believes have the best opportunity to produce the most fantasy points at each position.

HIGH-OWNED OPTIONS

ATLANTA FALCONS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

After opening at -12.5, this spread quickly dropped two points despite the majority of cash and tickets on the Chiefs. A test of -10 would be noteworthy, but anything before that is viewed as value on the Falcons, according to PFF Greenline. The total has clung to 54 since the open with a slight lean on the under, according to our model. The cash and ticket percentages are counter to this lean, which could indicate that most people expect a shootout.

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