The 2024 NFL Draft is fast approaching. The PFF big board is live, mock draft season is in full swing and the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine has wrapped up.
This year's draft presents an exciting quarterback class chock full of big names. USC‘s Caleb Williams headlines the group as one of the nation's premier playmakers, but North Carolina‘s Drake Maye, LSU‘s Jayden Daniels, Michigan‘s J.J. McCarthy and Oregon‘s Bo Nix have all been taken in the first round of recent mock drafts.
Let's look at North Carolina’s Drake Maye, who leads college football in big-time throws since 2022 (79).
SCOUTING SUMMARY
Maye's scouting reports start with his superb arm talent. He has a quick trigger to get the ball out of his hand fast. That comes with a lot of velocity to rip throws of any distance through tight coverage.
His out-of-structure accuracy and touch are top-tier but can be inconsistent, which leads to Maye's biggest issue: ball placement. It doesn't seem to be a glaring footwork or motion issue, but he just simply misses throws at times.
He has plus mobility and is experienced at attacking the middle of the field. He is also willing to go through progressions in a spread formation, although he is still improving on where to look and when.
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WINS ABOVE AVERAGE
WAA represents the number of wins a player is worth over an average college football player and is a metric that evaluators can utilize to assess performance. It combines how well a player performed in each facet of play (using PFF grades) and how valuable each facet is to winning football games. The result is a first-of-its-kind metric that allows for cross-positional valuation and predicts future value at the player and team levels.
HOW MAYE RANKS IN THE STABLE METRICS
The most stable facets of quarterback play are those with the biggest sample sizes — even though they intuitively seem “easier.” When projecting a quarterback’s future output, their performance from a clean pocket, on early downs and with no play action should be weighted heavily, and these are strong components when projecting PFF’s Wins Above Replacement metric. Good quarterbacks dominate these situations, while lesser quarterbacks rank near the bottom of the league. Negatively graded plays are also highly correlated from year to year, meaning the quarterback is largely in control of their negatives, while their positive plays may fluctuate due to supporting cast and play calling.
Compared to other players with PFF college data, Maye‘s metrics in the most predictive of data subsets measure up well.
Whether he’s within structure or on the move, Drake Maye always has his eyes downfield. His 96.8 passing grade on throws 20-plus yards downfield ranked third among qualified quarterbacks in 2023.
Since 2022, Maye has thrown for 5,176 yards and 52 touchdowns when targeting receivers past the sticks, good for a 96.7 passing grade that leads all qualified quarterbacks.
MAYE’S PROJECTIONS
In league-average circumstances, here are Maye’s projections for yards per attempt and completion percentage as an NFL rookie:
Let’s look at how Maye does when we make his situation better. With a low pressure rate, a high play-action rate and more downfield looks, things look similar.
Let’s also look at how Maye does when we make the situation less favorable. With a high pressure rate and a low play-action rate, his projected outcomes hardly change. Similar to Caleb Williams, Maye projects to be a very good NFL starter.
BOTTOM LINE FROM PFF's 2024 NFL DRAFT GUIDE
Maye's arm talent alone puts him in the first-round and top-10 conversation. Though his ball placement and decision-making (including sacks taken) need improvement, he has all the talent tools you want to bet on as a franchise quarterback.
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