NFL Draft News & Analysis

2023 Market-Implied NFL Mock Draft: Bryce Young stays No. 1 overall, Tyree Wilson jumps to No. 2 overall with Houston Texans

Texas quarterback Casey Thompson (11) is sacked by Texas Tech defensive lineman Tyree Wilson (19). Texas Tech took on the University of Texas at Austin at Darrell K. Royal stadium in Austin, Texas on Sept. 25, 2021. Aem Texas Vs Texas Tech 23

Bryce Young maintains spot at No. 1: Young remains the odds-on favorite to be selected first overall.

Tyree Wilson jumps to No. 2: Wilson's tantalizing upside may persuade the Houston Texans to delay picking their next franchise QB. 

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The NFL draft has finally arrived, which means should have results of the first round in a matter of hours. Uncertainty still reigns supreme, but this is the perfect opportunity to do a final market-implied mock draft to see how the betting market sees the first round playing out. Additionally, we can use this exercise to identify some best bets still remaining at the bottom. Let's dive in. 

1. CAROLINA PANTHERS: QB BRYCE YOUNG, ALABAMA

Only a Reddit rumor can stop the Panthers from selecting Young, but after that brief scare, the Alabama QB sits as the heavy favorite as we move toward draft night. 

2. HOUSTON TEXANS: EDGE TYREE WILSON, TEXAS TECH

No pick is more hotly debated than the Texans' selection at No. 2 overall. They have been as tight-lipped as any team, but current projections point toward them bypassing the quarterback position and selecting an edge with unmatched upside in this draft. 

3. ARIZONA CARDINALS: EDGE WILL ANDERSON JR., ALABAMA

DraftKings and FanDuel currently disagree on the favorite for this pick, but if the Cardinals hang onto it, they should select whichever edge doesn’t get taken by the Texans at No. 2 overall. 

4. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: QB WILL LEVIS, KENTUCKY

No team besides the Carolina Panthers seem as locked into one player in the top five as the Colts have been to Levis. There is some chatter that the Colts really like Anthony Richardson, but the current betting market expectation is the smoke is real, meaning the Colts love Levis at No. 4. 

5. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: DI JALEN CARTER, GEORGIA

Carter is priced with over a 50% implied probability to be the fifth overall pick. After a whirlwind draft cycle, Carter is till the most talented defensive player in this draft and should be an immediate contributor to a Seahawks team that is set up to win right now. 

6. DETROIT LIONS:  CB DEVON WITHERSPOON, ILLINOIS

The link between the Lions and Witherspoon has only grown stronger, as he has a 56.5% implied probability to be the sixth selection. Detroit seems locked into the defensive side of the football at No. 6, but unless multiple defensive linemen fall, the Lions should go cornerback with this selection. 

7. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: CB CHRISTIAN GONZALEZ, OREGON

The betting market likes back-to-back cornerbacks off the board, as Gonzalez has the shortest odds to be selected seventh overall. The Raiders seem to be more of a wildcard than most teams, and part of the cornerback expectation could be the idea that they may trade up to No. 3 and select their quarterback while the Cardinals drop to this selection. The market seems to be pricing in a quarterback slide.

8. ATLANTA FALCONS:  RB BIJAN ROBINSON, TEXAS

This would be the talk of the top 10. Although it’s not the way I would go, it is definitely the way the betting market is currently leaning at No. 8. 

9. CHICAGO BEARS: OT PARIS JOHNSON JR., OHIO STATE 

The Bears have a 64.3% implied probability to select an offensive lineman, but which one? Three of the big four tackles are the most likely selections here, but availability will go a long way in determining who actually ends up in this slot. Darnell Wright is the favorite over Peter Skoronski because the market expects Paris Johnson Jr. to already be off the board, but if he doesn’t go early, he is the best option at this pick. 

10. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: OT PETER SKORONSKI, NORTHWESTERN

The run on linemen continues, as the betting market expects the Eagles to go the sharp route and choose the best player available here. 

11. TENNESSEE TITANS: QB ANTHONY RICHARDSON, FLORIDA

Quarterback is the second-most likely position for the Titans to select, but the board playing out like this is a dream setup, as they would be choosing between C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson, whereas no one would have assumed either would be available here one week ago. 

12. HOUSTON TEXANS: WR JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA, OHIO STATE

For as uncertain as everyone seems about Hoston’s first first-round selection, this second pick hasn’t deviated from the Smith-Njigba consensus in quite some time. Houston continues to be the most likely landing spot for JSN, and the markets' only pause is the Bears scooping him up with the ninth selection. Moving on from Brandin Cooks means that offense should be the only priority for the Texans on Day 1. Pairing the top offensive weapon with their young signal caller is too likely of a scenario to ignore.  

13. NEW YORK JETS: EDGE NOLAN SMITH, GEORGIA

Smith continues to move up draft boards and now how a 10.5 draft position that is juiced heavily to the over. I Anderson slides, Smith could drop slightly, but this scenario sets up as the perfect win now play for the Jets.

14. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: OT DARNELL WRIGHT, TENNESSEE

The Patriots are the only team whose most likely drafted position pays better than +200. DraftKings basically admits no one knows what Belichick and the Patriots are going to do — with wide receiver, offensive lineman and cornerback all currently sitting at +250. With edge defender seeming unlikely, Joey Porter Jr. makes some sense here, but if not, it seems like one of the tackles will be the Patriots' pick. 

15. GREEN BAY PACKERS: EDGE LUKAS VAN NESS, IOWA

Edge defender or defensive lineman is the second-most likely selection for the Packers based on DraftKings' team draft specials. This is a bit lower than the consensus mock drafts have Van Ness going, as he currently has 12th overall estimated drafting position on GrindingTheMocks. There simply isn’t a wide receiver in this range for the Packers to pay up for if Smith-Njigba is off the board. 

16. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: QB C.J. STROUD, OHIO STATE

This would be an incredible slide for Stroud, but with no clear indication that any team covets him, he could freefall for quite some time. 

17. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: BRODERICK JONES, GEORGIA

Pittsburgh seems heavily linked to a cornerback or offensive lineman, and if one of the big four slides to them, he should be an easy selection here. 

18. DETROIT LIONS: EDGE MYLES MURPHY, CLEMSON 

Murphy has an 18.5 draft position total that is juiced heavily toward the over. This is the point in this draft class where things thin out, so we could see considerable volatility with how specific teams have ranked this tier of players. 

19. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: CB JOEY PORTER JR., PENN STATE

Another legacy player addition makes a perfect fit in the Buccaneers secondary. Porter Jr. has a 19.5 position prop that is juiced heavily toward the over, but he could continue a run on defensive players as we head toward the back half of the first round. 

20. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: CB DEONTE BANKS, MARYLAND

After foregoing quarterback early, the Seahawks have very few needs remaining and could just select the best player available. Adding to their defense seems like a play Pete Carroll would make, and Deonte Banks sits right in this range with a 20.5 draft selection total. 

21. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: WR ZAY FLOWERS, BOSTON COLLEGE

The Chargers seem poised to pick a pass catcher with the 21st selection, but will it be a wide receiver or tight end? This could be the spot for pass-catching sensation Dalton Kincaid, but due to the Chargers' emphasis on slot production, Zay Flowers could be the selection. 

22. BALTIMORE RAVENS: CB EMMANUEL FORBES, MISSISSIPPI STATE

Forbes is another cornerback quickly rising up draft boards because size doesn’t seem to be as pressing of a concern at cornerback as in years past. After the Odell Beckham Jr. addition, cornerback moved to a -110 favorite to be Baltimor's first position selected. 

23. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: WR JORDAN ADDISON, USC

Minnesota enters an interesting inflection point between a complete rebuild and a situation where they are trying to stay competitive. Building around Justin Jefferson points toward offense being the Vikings' selection, and wide receiver is the most likely position. If we expect wide receivers to slip some, then Minnesota could be looking at its pick of the second-tier of receivers at No. 23. 

24. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: TE DALTON KINCAID, UTAH

Kincaid has become a heavy favorite in his matchup against Michael Mayer to be first tight end selection. With the position total set at 2.5, it wouldn't be shocking to see a run on tight ends in the 20s.  

25. NEW YORK GIANTS: WR QUENTIN JOHNSTON, TCU

It's looking more likely that one of the second-tier wide receiver options will be available at No. 25, but which one will the Giants covet most?

26. DALLAS COWBOYS: DI CALIJAH KANCEY, PITTSBURGH

A dream scenario for the Cowboys after missing out on (Bijan Robinson). 

27. BUFFALO BILLS: DI BRYAN BRESEE, CLEMSON

Linebacker is Bills' most likely position to be picked, but that doesn’t project to be a reasonable selection spot given the PFF ratings on this year's linebacker class. Instead, the Bills could look to alleviate the need for quality linebacker play by getting a run-stuffing interior defender to cause havoc against multiple blockers. 

28. CINCINNATI BENGALS: OT ANTON HARRISON, OKLAHOMA

It was their highest priority need last offseason and although it’s only the third most likely position, don’t be surprised if the Bengals work to get more protection for Joe Burrow

29. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: QB HENDON HOOKER, TENNESSEE

Defense is always an option, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the Saints bail out the over 4.5 quarterback bettors and select Hendon Hooker at the end of the first round. He is -190 to go in the first with a 31.5 total that is juiced heavily to the under. 

30. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: EDGE WILL MCDONALD IV, IOWA STATE

Philadelphia could be moving out of this pick, but if they don’t the best player available in this scenario is McDonald. 

31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: S BRIAN BRANCH, ALABAMA

Too good of a player to fall out of the first round, as the Chiefs go best player available.


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