DFS data dive: The highest fantasy ceilings of Week 11 | Fantasy Football News, Rankings and Projections | PFF

Fantasy News & Analysis

Premium Content Sign Up

DFS data dive: The highest fantasy ceilings of Week 11

Green Bay Packers running back A.J. Dillon (28) against the Seattle Seahawks during their football game on Sunday November 14, 2021, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. Wm. Glasheen USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin Apc Pack Vs Seattle 1217 111421wag

Our series of analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates uses the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups.


Click here for more PFF tools:

Rankings & Projections | WR/CB Matchup Chart | NFL & NCAA Betting Dashboards | NFL Player Props tool | NFL & NCAA Power Rankings


In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.

Tackle Lifes financial Challenges. Western Southern Financial Group.
Sponsor

METHODOLOGY

For each game on the DFS Sunday main slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2014-2021 and found the closest analogies according to the following parameters: betting spread, over/under and average fantasy points scoring for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

Once I get the 75 most similar matchups for each upcoming game, I then simulate the main slate 10,000 times by randomly choosing one of the 75 matchups for each game. Then, I find the highest-scoring quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST on the slate.

The last step is totaling the number of times a particular team shows up as the top option for the slate at each position and dividing by the total simulations. That number is what I call “highest-scoring %” in the team-labeled bar charts below. Below the charts, I join the highest-projected player on that team for the position, then list their projected fantasy points and salaries for DraftKings and FanDuel.

QUARTERBACKS

Pos Highest % Player Team DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
QB 12.89 Patrick Mahomes KC 23.4 7,600 21.8 8,300
QB 7.61 Joe Burrow CIN 23.0 6,600 21.1 7,400
QB 7.53 Josh Allen BUF 25.3 8,100 23.7 8,800
QB 6.94 Dak Prescott DAL 21.1 7,200 19.5 8,400
QB 6.87 Jalen Hurts PHI 19.6 6,800 18.5 7,700
QB 6.16 Aaron Rodgers GB 23.2 7,000 21.7 7,700
QB 6.12 Derek Carr LV 20.4 5,900 19.0 7,200
QB 6.05 Lamar Jackson BLT 25.4 8,000 23.8 8,400
QB 4.42 Ryan Tannehill TEN 23.3 6,700 22.2 7,800
QB 4.27 Cam Newton CAR 20.0 5,100 18.8 7,500
QB 4.26 Jimmy Garoppolo SF 17.1 5,600 15.9 7,100
QB 4.13 Kyler Murray ARZ 22.6 7,900 21.3 8,200
QB 3.86 Baker Mayfield CLV 19.9 5,400 18.9 6,800
QB 3.78 Joe Flacco NYJ 14.6 4,600 13.7 6,300
QB 3.23 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 18.1 5,500 17.1 7,000
QB 3.07 Kirk Cousins MIN 18.7 6,100 17.3 7,400
QB 2.76 Russell Wilson SEA 20.6 6,500 19.3 7,300
QB 1.95 Trevor Lawrence JAX 17.0 5,200 15.9 6,500
QB 1.39 Trevor Siemian NO 17.6 5,300 16.1 7,000
QB 1.28 Carson Wentz IND 15.3 5,500 14.3 6,900
QB 1.25 Justin Fields CHI 17.7 5,700 16.7 6,800
QB 1.09 Taylor Heinicke WAS 17.3 5,300 16.1 6,700
QB 0.62 Jared Goff DET 12.5 5,100 11.7 6,400
QB 0.37 Tyrod Taylor HST 15.8 5,000 14.8 6,600

Related content for you: The Fantasy Football Utilization Report: Week 11 waiver, trade and drop candidates via Dwain McFarland

RUNNING BACKS

Subscribe to PFF Edge to continue reading

Already have a subscription? Sign In

Tackle Lifes financial Challenges. Western Southern Financial Group.
Sponsor

Fantasy Featured Tools

  • Sort projected player stats and fantasy points by position, week, and category.

    Available with

    Edge
  • Available with

    Edge
  • PFF's Fantasy Football Expected Points tool is primarily used for identifying potential over and undervalued players.

    Available with

    Elite
  • Research past fantasy performance with sortable player stats including PFF-exclusives like aDOT and fantasy points per opportunity.

    Available with

    Edge
  • PFF’s Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position.

    Available with

    Edge
Pro Subscriptions

Unlock NFL Player Grades, Fantasy & NFL Draft

$9.99 / mo
$39.99 / yr

Unlock Premium Stats, PFF Greenline & DFS

$34.99 / mo
$199.99 / yr