The weekday slate for Week 5 of the college football season looks to be an exciting one. We have a couple conference showdowns as Miami hosts Virginia and fifth-ranked Iowa takes on Taulia Tagovailoa and Maryland. The lines had just come out at the time of this writing, which is the perfect opportunity to find some betting value. Remember, the earlier you can get in on these lines, the better value.
It should be noted these projections are coming from my own model and not PFF Greenline. To date, my model is sitting at 52.7% ATS, with a RMSE of 15.6, which isn’t too bad. PFF Greenline is an amazing betting resource, and when it comes online for this week I highly encourage you to use it in conjunction with the betting articles. More knowledge will make you a smarter bettor every time.
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Virginia Cavaliers VS. Miami Hurricanes (-3.5)
Pick: Over 62
Cover Probability: 55.4%
With the top of the ACC starting to open up, both of these teams are looking to gain some footing in the Coastal Division. Miami ranks 62nd in the country in offensive grade (73.0), which is basically average. The Hurricanes come into this game after a tune up game against Central Connecticut State. The biggest surprise this season is the Miami defense. The Hurricanes currently rank 109th in overall defensive grade (62.4) and second-to-last in the nation in tackling (29.8). They will have to find some answers quickly because the Virginia offense can be downright dangerous.
Virginia is 13th in the country in PFF offensive grade (84.3). This has been primarily driven by the passing game and QB Brennan Armstrong, who continues to lead the nation in passing grade (92.3). Even in their disappointing loss to Wake Forest, Armstrong was solid, grading out at 83.9 overall. Similar to Miami, the Cavaliers have struggled defensively, grading out 120th with a 54.9 defensive grade. My model likes the over in this game off the backs of two competent offenses and two mediocre defenses.
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