• Chiefs are unstoppable on offense: The Kansas City Chiefs are far superior when it comes to moving the ball on offense. The Philadelphia Eagles have the edge on defense.
• No opponent too big: No matter the quality of the opponent, Patrick Mahomes has dominated in typical fashion, generating nearly the same expected points added (EPA) against bottom-ranked defenses as he has top-ranked defenses.
• No sweat first bet: New Fan Duel customers can get up to $3000 back in bonus bets if they sign up before Super Bowl 57.
Last updated: Friday, Feb. 9
• Bet: Patrick Mahomes over 300 passing yards & Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (+360)
• Bet: Patrick Mahomes over 300 passing yards & Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 (+ 575)
As always, we begin by looking at the team fundamentals because it provides a larger sample of production and a framework for our analysis.
• The Kansas City Chiefs are far superior when it comes to moving the ball on offense. However, the Philadelphia Eagles have the edge on defense.
• However, the gap between these two offenses is huge. The Chiefs are nearly one standard deviation better than the Eagles, and the gap between these two teams is the same as the gap between the Eagles and the league average.
• As we mentioned in the conference championship leveraging tails, the Chiefs defense has been playing at a top-10 level over the second half of the season. This shouldn’t be terribly surprising, though, given that they’ve gotten tremendous production from rookies — especially at cornerback — who tend to improve as the season progresses.
However, the fundamentals aren't the only thing that elevates this bet on Kansas City. Mahomes and the Chiefs neutralize the Eagles' comparative advantage on defense, and Mahomes has been lights-out no matter the game script.
Why does Mahomes neutralize the Eagles' defensive advantage?