Sunday Night Football Week 9: Bills-Bengals betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)

2T41PP0 Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) in action during an NFL football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Thursday, Oct. 26, 2023, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Gary McCullough)

• Bet James Cook OVER 47.5 rushing yards: Man is Buffalo's most common run concept (25%), and that is where the Bengals have struggled in run defense.

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Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

The Buffalo Bills have three of the best offensive performances of the season to their name in wins over the Las Vegas Raiders, Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins. But they followed those victories up with four baffling, lackluster efforts against the New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New England Patriots and the Jacksonville Jaguars in London, coming away with two wins and two losses.

The Cincinnati Bengals have been one of the most underperforming teams all year, losing three of their first four games. Joe Burrow has continued to get healthier as the season has gone on after a preseason calf injury, and the Bengals are fresh off their best performance of the season — a 31-17 win over the San Francisco 49ers.

James Cook Over 47.5 Rush Yards (-113 Caesars)

Cook is having a breakout season in his second year, accumulating almost 700 yards of offense through eight games. Despite the presence of some veteran running backs in Latavius Murray, a now-injured Damien Harris and the recently signed Leonard Fournette, Cook continues to take the bulk of the touches, recording at least 14 touches in seven of the Bills’ eight games.

Although Buffalo has had some middling, questionable performances on offense, they possess one of the NFL's most efficient rushing attacks, sitting first overall in expected points added per play and fourth in success rate behind an offensive line that has generated the third-highest yards before contact average on rushing plays.

The Bills have mixed up rushing concepts this season, with man, inside zone, power and outside zone each accounting for at least 10% of their rushing attempts. Man is Buffalo's most common concept (25%), and that is where the Bengals have struggled in run defense. They have the third-highest average depth of tackle on all types of rushing plays but have given up 0.139 EPA per man rushing attempt and have a negatively graded defender on more than 70% of those downs.

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