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PrizePicks Week 4 Preview

Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Corey Davis (84) with the ball as Carolina Panthers defensive end Brian Burns (53) defends in the fourth quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

PrizePicks describes itself as DFS made easy: Choose two or more players from the board and whether they go OVER or UNDER their projected fantasy score or single stat. The payout increases with each leg added, similar to a parlay bet.

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For the 2021 season, PFF has asked two of its analysts to go toe-to-toe each week on PrizePicks. Their task? They have to make their favorite player prop parlay bets. The loser goes home empty-handed and will donate to the winner’s charity of choice. Records will be updated each week, with both hopefully showing how to return a profit throughout the season. Honors are even as we head into Week 4.

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ANDREW ERICKSON

DEANDRE HOPKINS: UNDER 78.5 RECEIVING YARDS

DeAndre Hopkins has fallen victim to the increase in target competition around him in the Arizona Cardinals offense.

Hopkins owns just a 17% target share, which ranks outside the top 50 NFL receivers. A.J. Green has the same target share as teammates Christian Kirk and Chase Edmonds at 16%. 

The once-touted target magnet is not seeing looks at nearly the same rate he did last season, as Kliff Kingsbury has opted to spread the wealth throughout his offense. As a result, Hopkins’ forecasted receiving yards total has taken a massive hit, with PFF’s projections pegging him at just 58 receiving yards. Against the Los Angeles Rams defense, this shouldn’t be a surprise. Hopkins failed to surpass 52 yards in either game he played versus L.A. last season. 

More content you might like — NFL Week 4 Odds and Best Bets via Eric Eager and George Chahrouri

COREY DAVIS: OVER 45.5 RECEIVING YARDS

Corey Davis caught five passes for 41 yards on 10 targets against PFF’s No. 1 graded secondary in Week 3. In Week 4, he faces a Tennessee Titans defense that has allowed the third-most receiving yards to wide receivers. 

Based on his impressive 28% target share and ninth-ranked air-yards share (42%) from a week ago, expect Davis to hit his PFF median fantasy projection of 61 receiving yards in a revenge game this weekend. 

BEN BROWN

PATRICK MAHOMES: OVER 2.5 PASSING TOUCHDOWNS

Think what you want about the current state of the Chiefs, but one thing hasn’t changed, and that is Mahomes constantly going over 2.5 passing touchdowns.

He has done it in all three games to start the season, thanks to the negative game script that comes with the Chiefs playing from behind. No team can score as quickly as Kansas City, so if they are struggling to slow opposing offenses, the safest bet appears to be this one for Mahomes.

As others have said, it does seem like the Chiefs offense needs to score on every possession to win games, and in a spot where they almost have to win, expect an otherworldly performance from Patrick Mahomes. 

PFF's Player Props Tool leverages PFF's Fantasy Football Projections to reveal betting opportunities within player prop markets.
CALVIN RIDLEY: UNDER 7 RECEPTIONS

The 2021 season has already turned into a disaster for the Atlanta Falcons offense. They rank 30th league-wide in expected points added (EPA) per offensive play to start the season and only move up one spot when looking at just passing plays. 

Ridley’s usage has been perplexing. He does have a solid target percentage and air-yard percentage, but the team has generally been ineffective. His average depth of target (aDOT) was over 10 yards in the first two games of the season before being cut in half in Week 3.

Atlanta simply hasn’t figured out their offensive identity or how to play in Arthur Smith’s new scheme. Expect more of the same from the Falcons in Week 4 as they go up against the sixth-best coverage unit based on PFF’s opponent-adjusted grades.

PrizePicks has Ridley’s reception prop at a half-reception higher than the current betting market, making the value on the under one of the best offerings for Sunday.

More content you might like — Best Weekday College Football Bets for Week 5: Spreads, totals & player props via Jason DeLoach

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