• Bet Saints QB Andy Dalton o4.5 rush yards: Although Taysom Hill will be heavily utilized in short yardage, it’s entirely possible we see Dalton on an option-keep against an aggressive front-four.
• Bet Saints WR Chris Olave anytime TD: Saints' rookie speedster should see plenty of Marcus Peters, who hasn't registered a PFF coverage grade above 61.3 since September.
Last updated: Nov. 7, 1:45 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 3 mins
Here are PFF staff best bets in Baltimore Ravens–New Orleans Saints on “Monday Night Football” in Week 9:
Ben Brown: Andy Dalton — Over 4.5 rushing yards (-110)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -115
• It’s our time. After a rough Sunday night, it’s time to turn back to what got us here, the QB rushing prop. Dalton didn’t register a designed rush attempt last week for the first time since taking the QB1 reins. Technically, in Week 6, his rushing prowess was unleashed on a scramble, but he was on a two-week running tear before the Saints blew the doors off the Raiders in Week 8. This primetime matchup should be much more competitive, and if so, we should see Dalton once again use his legs to move the chains.
Judah Fortgang: Saints ml + Saints — Over 23.5 team total (+190), Saints -5.5 alt spread + Over 23.5 (+290)
• The market is not yet buying into Andy Dalton, despite his elite play in stable QB metrics. A below-average Ravens defense is unlikely to generate enough pressure to disrupt Dalton. If his improved production is not a fluke — and this is the tails we chase in this spot — the Saints should fly past 23.5 points. And with their defense prepared to stop what Baltimore does best, the Saints are a good bet to score often and cover the 5.5-point alt spread.
Richard Janvrin: Saints WR Chris Olave anytime TD (+165)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +150
• Michael Thomas hasn’t been involved in the offense for a few weeks now, but he’ll now officially miss the remainder of the season with a toe injury. Olave, a first-round rookie, now is the unquestioned No. 1 guy. He’s seen double-digit targets in three games this year and faces Ravens cornerback Marcus Peters, who’s allowed eight receptions on nine targets over the past two weeks, failing to post a coverage grade above 61.6 since Week 3. The total has dropped a bit this week from 48 to 46.5, but we're still expecting some scoring.
PFF Greenline top play: Ravens TE Josh Oliver — Over 7.5 receiving yards (-120)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to 8.5
• With talented rookie Isaiah Likely‘s prop at 40.5, we'll go with the veteran in Oliver, who only managed 4 receiving yards in Week 8 against the Bucs but logged a season-high 17 pass-down snaps, including 14 routes run, as injuries mounted. Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman and Gus Edwards are are unavailable, so Oliver is going to play a lot and can cash this easily on one target. Greenline gives this bet a 4.2% edge.
PFF staff best bets are 76-63-1 and entering MNF in Week 9.