NFL Week 9: Anytime touchdown bets

• Javonte Williams leads Dallas' goal-line attack: Williams has scored nine rushing touchdowns through eight weeks and handled all 17 of the Cowboys‘ designed carries inside the 5-yard line.

• Chase Brown has an opportunity against Atlanta: The Falcons have allowed nine rushing touchdowns and rank last in rushing EPA allowed over the past month, while Brown has scored just once on 94 carries.

• Puka Nacua could benefit from increased volume: With Davante Adams on injured reserve, Nacua remains a prominent red-zone target for Matthew Stafford and draws a Washington defense that frequently uses zone coverage.

RB Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys

Williams has scored nine rushing touchdowns through eight weeks, ranking second among rushers with at least 20 attempts. He has also added one receiving score, giving him multiple pathways to find the end zone.

And he has a robust role, too, having handled all 17 of Dallas’ designed carries inside the 5-yard line.

Now, he draws a Colts run defense that has already allowed eight rushing touchdowns, tied for 11th-most in the NFL. Indianapolis has generally struggled against the run, ranking 29th in rushing EPA allowed.

With Dallas a 6-point favorite in a game with a 51.5-point total, there’s little reason to overthink Williams here. He’s well-positioned to find the end zone again.

RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals

Atlanta has already allowed nine rushing touchdowns through eight weeks, tied for seventh-most in the NFL. The Falcons also rank 14th in rushing EPA allowed, but that number is dead last over the past month, as they’ve struggled to contain running backs.

Brown has handled two of Cincinnati’s five carries inside the 5-yard line this season. He has just one rushing score on 94 carries despite owning a robust share of the backfield workload. Brown already has the goal-line role. It’s just that the rushing touchdowns haven’t followed … yet.

Cincinnati is a 3-point favorite in a game with a 52.5-point total, creating an opportunity to capitalize on his usage before the production catches up.

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WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams

Sometimes you just need to go with old reliable, and that’s exactly what Puka Nacua is to Matthew Stafford in an offense whose receiving corps has been decimated by injuries.

The Rams pepper Nacua with targets inside the 20-yard line, averaging more than 1.5 per game in that area. And in short-yardage situations, the team loves to go to the Nacua screen. With Davante Adams (IR) out, those targets and opportunities should flow increasingly to Nacua, who could see volume rise from an already high baseline.

He now gets a favorable matchup against Washington’s zone coverage, against which he has the third-highest target rate in the NFL. With the Rams carrying an implied team total that suggests multiple touchdowns, look for Stafford to find Nacua in the end zone.