• SGP of Dak 300+ pass yards with CeeDee Lamb 100+ rec yards, Michael Gallup 100+ / TD (+7334): Detroit is atrocious in coverage and overly reliant on man, against which Dallas' dynamic 1-2 WR punch thrive.
• Top 25 in separating vs man since entering the league, Lamb and Gallup receive 50% of Cowboys' passing targets when they're on the field.
• The lowest-graded NFL corner in Successful Coverage Over Expected, Detroit's Armani Oruwariye will have a target on his back from Dak Prescott.
Last updated: Sun. Oct. 23, 8:10 a.m.
Estimated reading time: 4 mins
· While same game parlays (SGPs) are big money makers for the sportsbooks, that does not mean betting edges don't exist. SGPs offer two unique opportunities unavailable in other markets: they uniquely tell a story that we can create through props, spreads, and totals; and (2) SGPs allow us to combine outcomes that are correlated through a particular game angle, but will not be priced into the odds set by books.
· The goal in this space, then, will be to hit on SGPs that either tell unique stories about games and/or uncover correlated outcomes available only through SGPs.
Story: Justin Herbert attacks deep against weak Seattle secondary
• Justin Herbert has been absolutely elite throwing deep in his NFL career: Though he is only 23rd in deep attempt percentage, teams attack the Seattle defense, allowing the third-highest depth of target. As a result, the Seahawks lead the NFL in explosive pass plays allowed this season (31).
• It is not just that Seattle allows a high rate of deep throws and allow explosive plays: The Seahawks' secondary has struggled immensely in coverage. All but one coverage defender is grading negatively in PFF’s Successful Coverage Over Expected (SCOE) metric. And as a result of this poor coverage, the team has the 3rd-worst in dropback EPA allowed.
• With the likely return of Keenan Allen: Look for Herbert to dice up a weak secondary that is most exploitable deep — where Herbert excels in an an elite passing game.
DK Build (+950)
• Herbert Over 324.5 Passing Yds
• Herbert 3+ TDs
• LA Chargers -5.5
• Herbert Longest Passing Yds 45+
Story: Cowboys passing attack shines in Dak’s return
• The Lions' secondary is about as bad as it gets: Armani Oruwariye is the NFL’s worst corner in SCOE. Will Harris, a safety, is slotted into a starting corner role and has struggled immensely. The result is the 2nd-worst EPA allowed per dropback and 260 passing yards permitted per game.
• Compounding problems: Detroit's coverage issues compound given that it plays man coverage a league high 54.5% of the time, and as we know, man coverage reflects the talent on the field.
• Dallas' man beaters: But this bet is not just a bet selling the Lions awful pass defense. A team that plays loads of man coverage will likely be overmatched facing Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb — both of whom, over the past 3 years, rank in the top 25 generating separation against man coverage.
• Gallup and Lamb szn: And with Amari Cooper gone, Dallas' target distribution has narrowed as Gallup and Lamb combine to receive nearly 50% of the targets when on the field. We know where the targets will flow against a dreadful lions defense.
FanDuel SGP Build (+7334)
• Dak Prescott 300+ Yards Passing
• CeeDee Lamb 100+ Yards Receiving
• Michael Gallup 100+ Yards Receiving
• Michael Gallup TD Scorer
Story: With SF covering tight ends well, Patrick Mahomes will look Marquez Valdes-Scantling‘s way
• San Fran stout against TEs: The 49ers' aforementioned defenders — who all contribute covering tight ends — have been excellent so far this year en route to limiting the position to the second-fewest yards allowed this season.
• If the 49ers can limit Travis Kelce: Mahomes will likely be looking to his wide receivers for production. While MVS has been quiet so far this year, the opportunity is still present as he leads Chiefs receivers in snap % and route %. MVS is also popping in PFF’s Josh Hermsmeyer’s buy-low model.
• No opponent is worthy of fading Mahomes: His production is as bankable as it gets for anyone in football. In a matchup that filters targets and production to receivers, look for Mahomes to continue to produce and find MVS en route to a Chiefs win.
FanDuel SGP Build (+3668)
• Patrick Mahomes 300+ Yards Passing
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling 90+ Yards Receiving
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling TD
• Kansas City ML