NFL Week 6 Best Bets: Matchup angles to bet, including Justin Herbert carving up the Cowboys secondary

2RY2FP7 Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws a pass during the first half of an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, Sept. 24, 2023, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn)

Throughout the years, PFF data scientists have developed and conducted numerous studies to better understand and predict performance.

While many of these seminal works have furthered the conversation and certainly linger in the background, the goal is to identify how the findings manifest in particular weekly matchups and to source the matchups or interactions the betting market has overlooked.

Some bets will track traditional markets, but others will look to more exotic markets to ensure we utilize the best market for the particular thesis or angle. 

Angle: QB Justin Herbert mitigates the Dallas Cowboys pass rush

The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has been absolutely ferocious this season, generating quick pressure at the highest rate in the NFL. However, this pass rush has masked some deficiencies in the secondary, as the team ranks fourth-worst in perfect coverage rate.

In other words, we want to attack the Cowboys in spots where their pass rush can’t overwhelm. And as you can see, the Chargers have been below average at limiting quick pressure, but it hasn’t influenced their offensive success much.

As we studied in our study on scrambling, Herbert’s ability to extend plays and scramble mitigates the effect of a poor offensive line. Since entering the league, only Patrick Mahomes has generated more expected points added (EPA) on true scrambles, and he is behind only Mahomes and Josh Allen in terms of his sack rate on true scrambles.

Assuming Herbert can mitigate the pass rush, this Dallas defense is far weaker than the seventh-priced unit the market has pegged it as.

Best bets: Bet the Chargers over 24.5 points (+105), moneyline and alt spreads. Also, look to target Chargers -5.5 and Herbert alt passing props.

PFF's Best Bets Tool uses PFF data to uncover the biggest edges in the betting market.

Angle: The Jacksonville Jaguars offense has its way and stacks explosive plays

The Indianapolis Colts defense has surprised to this point in the season, fielding a defense that ranks toward the middle of the pack in most efficiency metrics.

However, they have really struggled to stymie explosive plays, as they have allowed a league-worst 12% explosive play percentage through five weeks. As we studied earlier this year, explosive plays are essential to drive-level success, and the Jaguars should rack up plenty of explosive plays in this game.

The chart above shows quarterback accuracy on deep passes, along with their big-time throw rate. It is essentially a view of a quarterback’s floor (X-axis) and ceiling (Y-axis) throwing deep.

 The fundamentals look terrific for Lawrence, who is firmly in the top right corner. And to this point of the season, the only reason why his results haven’t matched the fundamentals is that he’s been on the wrong end of some fluky drops.

We should expect this to turn, especially in this matchup. The Jaguars, certainly on the tails, are mispriced.

Best bets: Target Jaguars over team totals, Jaguars wide receivers longest reception props. Layer on Jaguars same-game parlays that play the angle that the Jaguars build a lead due to their explosive passing attack.

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