• Bet Jaylen Warren OVER 18.5 receiving yards: A seemingly hampered Kenny Pickett could look Warren's way often against the Ravens.
• Bet Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 34.5 passing attempts: The Dolphins are poised to build a big lead and shut down their passing attack early in favor of the run game.
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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
To recap our Week 4 betting preview, the Bengals were a complete disaster against the Titans and did not cover or ever look like covering the -2.5 number. Elsewhere, the two Sunday main slate player prop bets both won — Cole Kmet over 27.5 receiving yards and Jerome Ford under 13.5 rushing attempts — and Dalvin Cook went under his rushing total in the Sunday night game to push us to 3-1 on the week. An 0-2 betting record in the Giants-Seahawks game left us slightly down for the week before Justin Fields went over his alternate rushing yards total of 50 on Thursday night.
In all, we went 4-3 on the week and are at +7.81 units for the season with a 26.01% return on investment.
New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins — Tua Tagovailoa Under 34.5 Pass Attempts (-114 FanDuel)
Miami has made the run game a big part of their offense as of late, and it's working. Tua Tagovailoa threw the ball 30 times and 26 times in wins against the Patriots and Broncos, respectively, before a 36-attempt game in a blowout loss to the Bills. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert combined for more than 400 yards in the two wins, and Achane topped 100 yards with two touchdowns against the Bills.
The New York Giants’ run defense has had a tough schedule, playing the Cowboys and 49ers, but they also gave up 4.5 yards per carry to the Cardinals and Seahawks. Although starting tackle Terron Armstead is out for the Dolphins, the run game should continue to thrive, as it did after he went down last week, because the Giants have so much to worry about over the top.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will be up against rookie cornerbacks, and the Dolphins' ability to make splash plays is another reason that passing attempts are likely to be down. As a 12.5-point favorite at home, Miami could build a big lead and then shut down its passing game.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers — Jaylen Warren Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-111 Caesars)
Kenny Pickett looked like he could be out for a few weeks with a knee injury suffered last week, but he is back on the field after a full week of practice. There is some concern about whether he will be completely healthy and mobile, similar to Joe Burrow.
Jaylen Warren has forced his way into more playing time this season and is playing only a couple of snaps fewer than Najee Harris, taking almost all of the passing snaps. Pittsburgh is dealing with a potentially injured quarterback, a struggling wide receiver in George Pickens and a strong Ravens defensive front, so they could be behind the chains often. That would lead to more snaps for Jaylen Warren, who has amassed at least four targets in each of the first four weeks. He has the opportunity to be a regular outlet for an offense that could struggle to move the ball down the field with regularity in Week 5.
New York Jets @ Denver Broncos — Jeremy Ruckert First TD (60/1 DraftKings) & Anytime TD (13/1 Caesars)
This is more of a fun bet to cheer for with limited upside. As highlighted when targeting Cole Kmet props last week, the Denver Broncos are terrible against tight ends (against everything, actually), and that is somewhat hidden behind the fact that they played a few teams that had no interest in targeting their tight ends at the start of the season.
Say what you want about Jets quarterback Zach Wilson, but he performed admirably against the Chiefs after the early shakes, posting a 73.3 PFF passing grade and three big-time throws with zero turnover-worthy plays. Jeremy Ruckert took on an expanded role last week, with the Jets getting big bodies onto the field to help Wilson settle down. He played 15 snaps — more than TE2 C.J. Uzomah — including three of six in the red zone, where he saw one target.
It's a small sample size, but if the Jets are willing to put Ruckert on the field more and use him in red-zone situations, I am willing to bet on him to score a touchdown at double digits and hope he gets the first of the game at 60-to-1 odds.
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