Betting News & Analysis

Best NFL Week 5 Single-Game Parlays: Philadelphia Eagles' Jalen Hurts, New York Jets' Garrett Wilson and more

Landover, Maryland, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) passes the ball as Washington Commanders linebacker Cole Holcomb (55) and Commanders safety Bobby McCain (20) defend during the second quarter at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Eagles-Cardinals SGP build (+3000): Jalen Hurts struggles vs. Cardinals blitz, with the Eagles going under their team total and Hurts going under his passing-yards prop but over his rushing total.

Arizona has second-highest blitz rate, while Hurts is 10th-lowest in blitzes against: Hurts does scramble a ton against extra pressure —  4th in NFL in career rush% on blitzes.

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Last updated: Sun. Oct. 9, 8:15 a.m.

Estimated reading time: 3 mins


· While same game parlays (SGPs) are big money makers for the sportsbooks, that does not mean betting edges don't exist. SGPs offer two unique opportunities unavailable in other markets: they uniquely tell a story that we can create through props, spreads, and totals; and (2) SGPs allow us to combine outcomes that are correlated through a particular game angle, but will not be priced into the odds set by books.

· The goal in this space, then, will be to hit on SGPs that either tell unique stories about games and/or uncover correlated outcomes available only through SGPs.


New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins

Story: Garrett Wilson Continues to Dominate Man Coverage

The Dolphins play man defense on almost half of their snaps: Great news for Garett Wilson, who leads in the NFL in PFF grade before the catch point facing man coverage. 

Advantage, Wilson: Of course, as we studied at PFF this summer, man coverage reflects the talent on the field, and Wilson will have the advantage over the Dolphins corners — all of whom are graded right about average before the catch point while in man coverage.

Wilson eighth in the NFL with 8 red zone targets: With the Jets' top pick also a threat to score from anywhere on the field, he could be a big play and some schemed red-zone looks might just be the recipe for an enormous SGP cash. 

FanDuel SGP Build (+8079)

• Garrett Wilson 100+ Yards

• Garrett Wilson 2+TDs


Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears

Story: Vikings ride dalvin Cook to cover vs. bears

At 70%, Cook is fifth among NFL running backs in team rush share and eighth overall in carries: And this matchup should yield plenty of volume for Cook. As illustrated above, teams choose to attack the Bears on the ground, running nearly 12% more than expected.

Bears' 5.1 yards per carry allowed ranks 30th in the NFL: And they are PFF’s sixth-worst-graded run defense unit.

Chicago already has allowed at least 130 rushing yards in a game to Aaron Jones and Saquon Barkley: Plus, the Bears' 1.3 rushing touchdowns surrendered per game is the fifth-worst rate in the league.

FanDuel SGP build (+1950)

• Dalvin Cook 2 TDs

• Dalvin Cook 125 Rush Yards

• Minnesota Vikings -7.5


Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals

Story: Cardinals blitzes give Hurts trouble en route to upset win

Jalen Hurts (5th in EPA) has been terrific so far this season, but an area where he has struggled is handling the blitz: And he's been well-below-average in this department — both for his career and this season. Although he has struggled against the blitz, Hurts only has been blitzed 25% of the time — which is a bottom-10 rate in the NFL. 

Cardinals blitz second most in the NFL: At 44% blitz rate, Arizona will try and send extra pressure at Hurts early and often. 

Hurts in 4th in rush percentage in his career against blitzes: Not only has Hurts struggled against the blitz, but he also has a propensity to run when blitzed: 4th in rush percentage on blitzes for his career and for this season. Look for Hurts to scramble, which suggests a lean toward his rushing over and perhaps fewer passes to get him under his passing total.

DraftKings SGP Build (+3000)

• Eagles u24.5 Total Points

• Jalen Hurts u249.5 Passing Yards

• Jalen Hurts o64.5 Rushing Yards 

• ARI Cardinals ML


Judah is 7-13 overall on the season (ROI: 124.25%).

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