• Eagles-Cardinals SGP build (+3000): Jalen Hurts struggles vs. Cardinals blitz, with the Eagles going under their team total and Hurts going under his passing-yards prop but over his rushing total.
• Arizona has second-highest blitz rate, while Hurts is 10th-lowest in blitzes against: Hurts does scramble a ton against extra pressure — 4th in NFL in career rush% on blitzes.
• New users who bet $10 or more at BetMGM will receive a free year’s subscription to PFF+ — a $79.99 value.
Last updated: Sun. Oct. 9, 8:15 a.m.
Estimated reading time: 3 mins
· While same game parlays (SGPs) are big money makers for the sportsbooks, that does not mean betting edges don't exist. SGPs offer two unique opportunities unavailable in other markets: they uniquely tell a story that we can create through props, spreads, and totals; and (2) SGPs allow us to combine outcomes that are correlated through a particular game angle, but will not be priced into the odds set by books.
· The goal in this space, then, will be to hit on SGPs that either tell unique stories about games and/or uncover correlated outcomes available only through SGPs.
Story: Garrett Wilson Continues to Dominate Man Coverage
• The Dolphins play man defense on almost half of their snaps: Great news for Garett Wilson, who leads in the NFL in PFF grade before the catch point facing man coverage.
• Advantage, Wilson: Of course, as we studied at PFF this summer, man coverage reflects the talent on the field, and Wilson will have the advantage over the Dolphins corners — all of whom are graded right about average before the catch point while in man coverage.
• Wilson eighth in the NFL with 8 red zone targets: With the Jets' top pick also a threat to score from anywhere on the field, he could be a big play and some schemed red-zone looks might just be the recipe for an enormous SGP cash.
FanDuel SGP Build (+8079)
• Garrett Wilson 100+ Yards
• Garrett Wilson 2+TDs
Story: Vikings ride dalvin Cook to cover vs. bears
• At 70%, Cook is fifth among NFL running backs in team rush share and eighth overall in carries: And this matchup should yield plenty of volume for Cook. As illustrated above, teams choose to attack the Bears on the ground, running nearly 12% more than expected.
• Bears' 5.1 yards per carry allowed ranks 30th in the NFL: And they are PFF’s sixth-worst-graded run defense unit.
• Chicago already has allowed at least 130 rushing yards in a game to Aaron Jones and Saquon Barkley: Plus, the Bears' 1.3 rushing touchdowns surrendered per game is the fifth-worst rate in the league.
FanDuel SGP build (+1950)
• Dalvin Cook 2 TDs
• Dalvin Cook 125 Rush Yards
• Minnesota Vikings -7.5
Story: Cardinals blitzes give Hurts trouble en route to upset win
• Jalen Hurts (5th in EPA) has been terrific so far this season, but an area where he has struggled is handling the blitz: And he's been well-below-average in this department — both for his career and this season. Although he has struggled against the blitz, Hurts only has been blitzed 25% of the time — which is a bottom-10 rate in the NFL.
• Cardinals blitz second most in the NFL: At 44% blitz rate, Arizona will try and send extra pressure at Hurts early and often.
• Hurts in 4th in rush percentage in his career against blitzes: Not only has Hurts struggled against the blitz, but he also has a propensity to run when blitzed: 4th in rush percentage on blitzes for his career and for this season. Look for Hurts to scramble, which suggests a lean toward his rushing over and perhaps fewer passes to get him under his passing total.
DraftKings SGP Build (+3000)
• Eagles u24.5 Total Points
• Jalen Hurts u249.5 Passing Yards
• Jalen Hurts o64.5 Rushing Yards
• ARI Cardinals ML
Judah is 7-13 overall on the season (ROI: 124.25%).