• Commanders QB Sam Howell locks onto Jahan Dotson for a big passing day: Dotson has some of the best underlying numbers in the NFL as a premier deep threat who also excels in contested-catch situations and after the catch.
• The Cincinnati Bengals passing offense bounces back en route to win: Baltimore's best pass-rusher finished 130th in pressure rate last season, and the team's secondary does not have a single corner who graded above average in terms of limiting separation. So, going up against Chase and the Bengals could pose a problem for the Ravens in Week 2.
• Running it back: Judah Fortgang's same-game parlays gave a $100 bettor an 86.1% ROI last year.
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• The shadow report chart above comes courtesy of Arjun Menon, and it shows which corners followed opposing receivers around the field in Week 1.
• Patrick Surtain II, PFF’s second-highest-graded cornerback last season, shadowed the opposition's WR1 at the highest rate in the league, while Damarri Mathis finished third and was duly cooked by Jakobi Meyers on his way to grading out as the worst cornerback in Week 1.
• With Surtain likely on Terry McLaurin, Dotson has a huge advantage over Mathis. So, Dotson looks to be the primary target in this game.
• As you can see from the chart above, Jahan Dotson has some of the best underlying numbers in the NFL as a premier deep threat who also excels in contested-catch situations and after the catch. It is also worth noting that he finished 15th best in terms of creating separation, making him an all-around terrific talent at wide receiver.
• However, Dotson and the Washington offense are priced down, with Howell’s prop sitting at a mere 200 yards, one of the lowest on the slate.
• As discussed last week, the Broncos defense is living off a reputation. They struggled in Week 1, allowing Jimmy Garoppolo and the Raiders to generate the third-most expected points added (EPA) per play while finishing dead last in pressure rate despite not facing a particularly strong offensive line.
• This is especially relevant, considering the Achilles heel for Howell is his propensity to take sacks. The extra time in the pocket should also allow Howell to throw deep, and this is where Dotson shines.
• Washington passed over expected last week, suggesting the team is comfortable letting Howell throw, which should give him plenty of volume to clear his prop.
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Story: The Cincinnati Bengals passing offense bounces back en route to win
• QB Joe Burrow and the Bengals struggled mightily in their Week 1 matchup against the Cleveland Browns, but this should not distract us from the larger sample of this offense being one of the more dominant outfits in the NFL.
• Since the Baltimore Ravens acquired Roquan Smith midway through last season, the team ranks third in EPA allowed per rush. This stout unit should limit Mixon's production and tilt the Bengals to the pass.
• That's not to say the Bengals needed encouragement to lean into the passing game, as this team is one of the most consistent passing teams week in and week out. So, there should be plenty of volume to go around for the Bengals' passing attack, no matter the game script.
• This matchup presents an advantage for the Bengals, as the Ravens don't have the kind of pass rush that will limit Burrow’s production.
•Baltimore's best pass-rusher finished 130th in pressure rate last season, and the team's secondary does not have a single corner who graded above average in terms of limiting separation. So, going up against Chase and the Bengals could pose a problem for the Ravens in Week 2.
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- Joe Mixon: Under 55.5 yards
- Ja'Marr Chase: 100+ receiving yards
- Cincinnati Bengals: -5.5
- Joe Burrow: 300+ passing Yards
• If trying to lean further into the angles we discussed earlier this week, this SGP presents an additional way to capitalize on a similar thesis at far longer odds.
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