- Kyren Williams draws a favorable matchup: The Rams running back faces a Giants defense that ranked last in rush EPA allowed and surrendered 19 rushing touchdowns last season.
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt offers longshot value: The Commanders running back handled 16 carries last week and converted the team’s only rush inside the 5-yard line for a touchdown.
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Anytime touchdown bets remain one of the most popular player prop markets, but finding value requires looking beyond the shortest odds and biggest names. Here are PFF’s anytime touchdown picks, using data to identify players with favorable scoring opportunities and prices.
For more betting data, use PFF’s First TD Finder to evaluate first-touchdown markets and the Player Prop Tool to analyze anytime touchdown odds and other player props.
RB Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
Kyren Williams remains as reliable as ever, and now he draws a Giants run defense that ranked last in rush EPA allowed and bottom-three in rushing touchdowns allowed a season ago.
Williams handled 56.3% of the Rams’ goal-line rushes last season and turned 18 carries inside the 5-yard line into eight touchdowns. He finished with 10 rushing scores, tied for eighth among 55 backs with at least 80 carries, and will face a Giants front that allowed 19 rushing touchdowns — tied for third-most in the NFL last season — while posting the league’s worst rush success rate allowed (48.0%).
Blake Corum still ate up 40.6% of those goal-line carries, so the vulture threat is real. However, with the Rams 7.5-point favorites on Monday Night Football and the game carrying a 47.5-point total, there isn’t much reason to overthink Williams in this spot. He’s well-positioned to find the end zone again.
Longshot: RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Washington Commanders
The Cowboys’ run defense completely collapsed last season, finishing tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed (22) and 29th in rush EPA allowed. It was a unit particularly vulnerable to between-the-tackles runners, especially once opponents got inside the 10-yard line.
Croskey-Merritt, meanwhile, took control of Washington’s backfield last week, handling 16 carries. More importantly for this market, he took the Commanders’ only rush inside the 5-yard line — and converted it for a touchdown. Rachaad White handled seven carries, but Chris Rodriguez’s 40.0% goal-line share from 2025 is now up for grabs, and Croskey-Merritt looks like a strong candidate to inherit it.
Washington is a 4.5-point underdog on the road, so this isn’t a smash spot from a game-script perspective. The appeal instead comes from the combination of matchup and role: a defense that surrendered the most rushing touchdowns in football last season and a back who converted the lone high-leverage carry he received last week.
That makes Croskey-Merritt a long shot I’m interested in against this vulnerable Cowboys run defense.
WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
Watson draws a terrific matchup against a Jets secondary that played man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL last season (42.5%). He averaged 2.55 yards per route run against man coverage across 76 routes and was targeted on 25% of those routes, a profile that fits perfectly with his ability to win vertically.
He is more of a vertical scoring threat than a red-zone magnet, accounting for just 8.7% of Green Bay’s red-zone targets last year, but that profile showed up immediately in Week 1 with two receiving touchdowns on eight targets. Watson scored six times in 2025, and his ability to turn downfield opportunities into touchdowns keeps him firmly in consideration when the coverage matchup points toward man. With fewer mouths to feed in Green Bay, there should also be room for his target share to grow.
With Green Bay favored by a field goal and facing a favorable coverage look, Jordan Love should have opportunities to find Watson downfield, giving the receiver an elevated chance to find the end zone.
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