• Amari Cooper to dominate the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ man coverage: The Steelers have lined up in man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL this season, which could be an issue against Cooper and the Browns.
• Back QB Aaron Rodgers to lean on Christian Watson and Allen Lazard: Watson and Lazard have accounted for 75% of the team's deep targets since Week 10. They should be the recipients of a few deep shots on Sunday, padding their receiving stats.
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Estimated reading time: 3 mins
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The Story: Cleveland Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper dominates the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ man coverage.
• The Steelers have lined up in man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL this season, which could be an issue against Cooper and the Browns.
• The Browns wideout has dominated man coverage, earning the second-best PFF grade at the position against man coverage and generating a massive 32% target share against those looks.
• The Steelers defense has allowed the highest rate of explosive pass plays in the NFL, doing so on nearly 10% of pass plays.
• With a struggling Steelers offense and a Browns defense peaking at the right time, a few big plays to Cooper might be necessary for the Browns to win a tight one-score game.
FANDUEL SGP BUILD:+2698
- Amari Cooper: 100+ yards
- Amari Cooper: Touchdown
- Cleveland Browns: -5.5
- Deshaun Watson: Over 207.5 passing yards
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a $10 wager would return $279.80
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
The story: QB Aaron Rodgers leans on Christian Watson and Allen Lazard en route to a Green Bay Packers win.
• The Packers gave attempted 87 deep passes this year, fourth-most in the NFL.
• The Lions defense invites many deep passes and has struggled to defend those throws.
• Watson and Lazard have accounted for 75% of the team's deep targets since Week 10. They should be the recipients of a few deep shots on Sunday, padding their receiving stats.
• It doesn’t hurt that Lazard and Watson have combined for a huge 58% target share against man coverage, and Detroit has played man at the third-highest rate in the NFL.
• Look for Rodgers to lean heavily on the two receivers en route to the Packers locking up the No. 7 seed.
FANDUEL SGP BUILD:+2452
- Christian Watson: 70+ receiving yards
- Allen Lazard: 70+ receiving yards
- Aaron Rodgers: 275+ passing yards
- Green Bay Packers: -4.5
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a $10 wager would return $255.20
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
The story: Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith leads his team past the pass-funnel Los Angeles Rams defense.
• The Rams defense is allowing 0.2 more EPA against the pass than the run, making them one of the biggest pass-funnel teams in the NFL.
• The Seahawks pass three percentage points over expected, and with the matchup pointing in the direction of passing and a playoff berth on the line, look for Geno to throw early and often against the Rams.
• When the Seahawks QB drops back to throw, we know he’ll be looking for Lockett and Metcalf. And if Geno is to have a big day, he will surely bring those two along for the ride.
FANDUEL SGP BUILD:+2935
- Geno Smith: 300+ passing yards
- D.K. Metcalf: 80+ receiving yards
- Tyler Lockett: 80+ receiving yards
- Seattle Seahawks: -5.5
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a $10 wager would return $303.50
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