Throughout the years, PFF data scientists have developed and conducted numerous studies to better understand and predict performance.
While many of these seminal works have furthered the conversation and certainly linger in the background, the goal is to identify how the findings manifest in particular weekly matchups and to source the matchups or interactions the betting market has overlooked.
Some bets will track traditional markets, but others will look to more exotic markets to ensure we utilize the best market for the particular thesis or angle.
The Miami Dolphins receivers generate quick separation vs. the Dallas Cowboys’ man-heavy defense
• No team has played more man coverage than the Dallas Cowboys, who have done so on nearly half of their defensive plays this season.
• According to a 2022 study at PFF, man coverage tends to produce a true reflection of the talent on the field, as the better player will come out on top more often than not, whether that be the wide receiver or cornerback.
• Even though they have played man coverage at a league-high rate, the Cowboys' corners have struggled in man coverage. DaRon Bland has been particularly underwhelming in that regard, ranking in the 25th percentile at preventing separation in man coverage.
• No matter who they play, the Miami Dolphins offense will almost always present a mismatch. Very few players in the league are capable of covering Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who rank top-10 in virtually any metric capturing efficiency against man coverage.
• The Cowboys' pass defense has lived off a dominant pass rush that has generated a league-best 38% quick-pressure rate, a rate that is six percentage points greater than the next-closest team.
• However, the Dolphins offense is designed to mitigate quick pressure, as Tua Tagovailoa gets the ball out in 2.35 seconds on average, the quickest mark in the league. No pass rush can get to the quarterback that quickly.
• The Dolphins offense is special because of the receivers' ability to generate early separation and Tagovailoa's ability to get the ball downfield quickly. And it will present a very tough test for a Cowboys defense that is priced as one of the most dominant units in the NFL.
Bets to make: I’ll be looking to bet the Miami Dolphins spread, Miami team totals and some same-game parlays with QB Tua Tagovailoa and his receivers putting up big numbers.
The Tennessee Titans quarterback struggles against the Seattle Seahawks pass rush
• Since Leonard Williams‘ arrival in Seattle, the Seahawks pass rush has sneakily become one of the best units in the NFL.
• Over the last couple of months, Seattle has been at the very top of the league in pressure generated, whereas the Titans have allowed the second-highest pressure rate. And that mismatch will play a huge role in this game, given the Titans' quarterback situation.
• Will Levis and Ryan Tannehill have both struggled to extend plays and avoid sacks and could struggle against a sneaky-good pass rush.
• The Seahawks defense as a whole may be struggling, and that is the operative part of the market's pricing, but the team will be in a good spot against the Titans in Week 16.
Bets to make: I’ll be looking to bet Titans QB passing unders, team total unders, Seahawks sack props and Seahawks spreads.
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