• Bet Aaron Rodgers o2.5 rush yards: He's using his legs more of late (11, 41, 4 rushing yards in past 3 games, respectively); Titans rank 6th in pressure rate, creating more potential scramble opportunities.
• Bet Titans 1H moneyline: They lead the NFL in scripted rushing EPA; Packers grade out 24th in PFF run defense.
Last updated: Nov. 17, 2:45 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 2 mins
Ben Brown: Titans 1H moneyline (+150)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +135
• They lead the NFL in scripted offensive rushing EPA and are above league average on passing plays, making this relatively straightforward: Titans ideally jump out to an early lead on an impressive first drive featuring Derrick Henry, a consistent recipe for their success this season. Tennessee's first half moneyline is my favorite approach to playing this narrative, and if they flash some potential passing the ball, potentially look for an in-game or second-half number, assuming the Packers are down heading into the third quarter.
Arjun Menon: Aaron Rodgers — Over 2.5 rushing yards
Bet Gameplan: Playable to 3.5
Martyn Carlisle: Packers WR Christian Watson — Under 44.5 receiving yards (-110)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to 41.5
PFF Greenline top play: Titans RB Derrick Henry — Over 21.5 rush attempts
Bet Gameplan: Playable to 22.5
• We're not overthinking this one. Although he hasn't gone over this number in November and only has 22+ carries in four games this season, Henry is built for this kind of matchup. Green Bay is a sieve defending the run, and Rodgers comes off his second-highest-graded game of the season knowing full well the liabilities that reside in Tennessee's secondary as currently configured. The Titans' best defense for Rodgers tonight is a heaping dose of Henry.
PFF staff best bets are 82-70-1 and entering Week 11.