- Omar Cooper Jr. could continue his strong rookie season: The Jets receiver has excelled against single-high looks, and he could extend the Bills‘ trouble with slot wideouts.
- The Seahawks are poised for a huge day on the ground: Seattle's rushers could find room both before and after contact against a vulnerable Raiders defense.
- Jalen Coker fits Carolina's passing-game approach: The Panthers receiver commands a 27% target share against single coverage and faces a Saints defense that frequently uses single coverage and single-high safety looks.
Omar Cooper Jr. takes advantage of the Buffalo Bills’ single-high coverage
No team in the NFL has played more single coverage over the last month than the Bills, who have done so on 56% of their snaps.
A few of the Jets’ receivers have excelled in single coverage, especially Cooper. The rookie is in the 98th percentile in both his separation and his yards per route run against single coverage, earning a target on nearly 25% of his routes against the look.
The slot is where the Bills have struggled. Teams have attacked Buffalo slot defenders at the fifth-highest rate, and the Bills have allowed the second-most explosive plays in the slot position.
With a Bills offense that should have no problems scoring against the Jets, there should be plenty of opportunity for passing and volume for Cooper and the Jets’ offense.
SGP Build: 35-1
- WR Omar Cooper Jr., New York Jets: 6 receptions + 100 Yards + TD
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Seahawks to run all over Raiders
The Seahawks are dealing with a slew of injuries at quarterback, with Sam Darnold out and Drew Lock himself banged up. Last week’s result was a team that relied very heavily on the ground game, running 10% more than expected when adjusted for the game situation. Lock didn’t even attempt a pass that traveled more than 17 yards downfield, not exactly a screaming sign of success.
Seattle faces a Raiders defense that is bleeding on the ground, allowing by far the most yards before contact in the NFL. That’s led Las Vegas to surrender the most yards per carry of any run defense in the NFL.
This is an area where the Seahawks’ backs have struggled to find room, but Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price have also been solid after contact. There should be plenty of space before contact in this matchup for the Seattle running backs to run free.
On the other side of the ball, rookie Fernando Mendoza makes his first start against perhaps the NFL’s best defense. Those are not ideal conditions; it could lead to many short drives for the Raiders, allowing ample plays for the Seahawks to run both of their backs.
With Charbonnet at a roughly 70-30 split, he should see the bulk of the carries and be the primary runner. But Price should get plenty of totes, too, and he has the more explosive profile to add yards himself.
SGP Build 45-1
- RB Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks: 100+ rush yds & TD
- RB Jadarian Price, Seattle Seahawks: 80+ rush yards
Bryce Young and Jalen Coker Could Exploit the Saints‘ Coverage Tendencies
One way to build on our Panthers betting angle is to lean into the passing game, particularly Jalen Coker. His skill set matches up well with the Saints‘ defensive tendencies, and his odds make him an appealing value option to lead Carolina's passing attack.
The Saints play both single coverage and single-high safety looks at top-five rates in the NFL. Coker ranks above the 80th percentile in yards per route run against both looks and leads the Panthers in targets against each. He also commands a 27% target share against single coverage.
With Carolina's passing game in a favorable spot for the reasons outlined above, I like building a same-game parlay around a Young-to-Coker connection, paired with a Panthers win.
SGP build: Approx. 30-1
- QB Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 275+ passing yards
- WR Jalen Coker, Carolina Panthers: 100+ receiving yards
- Carolina Panthers: -2.5
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