NFL Week 1: Anytime touchdown bets

• Javonte Williams draws a favorable matchup: Williams handled 71.4% of Dallas’ goal-line carries last season and faces a Giants defense that ranked last in rush EPA allowed.

• Saquon Barkley brings multiple scoring paths: Barkley recorded 280 carries and a 17.5% target rate when running a route last season ahead of a matchup with Washington.

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Anytime touchdown bets remain one of the most popular player prop markets, but finding value requires looking beyond the shortest odds and biggest names. Here are PFF’s anytime touchdown picks, using data to identify players with favorable scoring opportunities and prices.

For more betting data, use PFF’s First TD Finder to evaluate first-touchdown markets and the Player Prop Tool to analyze anytime touchdown odds and other player props.

Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys

Javonte Williams draws an ideal matchup against a Giants run defense that ranked last in rush EPA allowed, last in rushing success rate and in the bottom three in rushing touchdowns allowed in 2025.

Williams handled 71.4% of Dallas’ goal-line carries last season and converted 10 of his 20 attempts inside the 5-yard line into touchdowns. He finished with 11 rushing scores, seventh among running backs with at least 80 carries. Now, he faces a Giants defense that surrendered 19 rushing touchdowns, tied for third-most in the NFL.

With Dallas favored by 3 points in one of the highest-total games on the slate, the projected game environment should create opportunities for Williams near the goal line. There isn’t much reason to overthink this spot: Williams is well-positioned to find the end zone.

Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles

Barkley remains a threat to score from anywhere on the field, and he draws a favorable matchup against a Commanders run defense that ranked 28th in rush EPA allowed last year, surrendering 18 rushing touchdowns, tied for seventh most in the NFL.

Barkley also brings one of the league’s largest workloads into the matchup. He recorded 280 carries last season and commanded a 17.5% target rate when running a route, giving him multiple avenues to reach the end zone.

Jalen Hurts remains a threat to take goal-line opportunities, with five of his six 2025 rushing touchdowns coming from inside the 5-yard line. But with Philadelphia favored by 5.5 points, Barkley’s combination of rushing volume and receiving involvement should give him plenty of scoring opportunities against Washington.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

Kincaid remains Buffalo’s primary receiving tight end, posting a 25.5% target rate when running a route and averaging 2.97 yards per route run across 192 routes last season. He was particularly productive against zone coverage, averaging 4.17 yards per route run against those looks.

That creates an appealing matchup against a Texans defense that played zone on 60.5% of opponent dropbacks last season and allowed 1.82 yards per route run over the final six weeks. Kincaid also scored five receiving touchdowns on 49 targets, establishing himself as one of Josh Allen’s primary targets near the end zone.

Against a zone-heavy Houston defense featuring nickel defender Jalen Pitre, who allowed 1.24 yards per route run, Kincaid has a favorable path to another touchdown.