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NFL player props Week 4: Leveraging utilization data to identify edges

Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz (86) in action during the game against the Philadelphia Eagles at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

We can identify potential edges in prop bet markets by analyzing the underlying utilization data and trends that drive NFL box scores.

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TE Jared Cook, Los Angeles Chargers – Under 3.5 Receptions (-119)

Cook is averaging 68% routes per pass play and 16% targets per route run (TPRR).

Player Pos Week Routes TPRR
Jared Cook TE 1 63% 24%
2 67% 15%
3 76% 9%
YTD 68% 16%

Since 2011, 14 tight ends have averaged between 60 and 70% routes per pass play and between 15% and 18% targets per route run. That group averaged 2.9 receptions per game, and only three (21%) were able to eclipse 3.5 receptions per game.

Cook currently ranks as the 13th-best value on the PFF's player props tool for tight end receptions at 9.3%.

PFF's Player Props Tool leverages PFF's Fantasy Football Projections to reveal betting opportunities within player prop markets.

Related content for you: Best last-minute NFL bets ahead of Week 4 via Ben Brown

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