Betting News & Analysis

Premium Content Sign Up

NFL player props Week 4: Leveraging utilization data to identify edges

Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz (86) in action during the game against the Philadelphia Eagles at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

We can identify potential edges in prop bet markets by analyzing the underlying utilization data and trends that drive NFL box scores.


Click here for more PFF tools:

Rankings & ProjectionsWR/CB Matchup ChartNFL & NCAA Betting DashboardsNFL Player Props toolNFL & NCAA Power Rankings


TE Jared Cook, Los Angeles Chargers – Under 3.5 Receptions (-119)

Cook is averaging 68% routes per pass play and 16% targets per route run (TPRR).

Player Pos Week Routes TPRR
Jared Cook TE 1 63% 24%
2 67% 15%
3 76% 9%
YTD 68% 16%

Since 2011, 14 tight ends have averaged between 60 and 70% routes per pass play and between 15% and 18% targets per route run. That group averaged 2.9 receptions per game, and only three (21%) were able to eclipse 3.5 receptions per game.

Cook currently ranks as the 13th-best value on the PFF's player props tool for tight end receptions at 9.3%.

PFF's Player Props Tool leverages PFF's Fantasy Football Projections to reveal betting opportunities within player prop markets.

Related content for you: Best last-minute NFL bets ahead of Week 4 via Ben Brown

DOMINATE FANTASY FOOTBALL & BETTING WITH AI-POWERED DATA & TOOLS TRUSTED BY ALL 32

Unlimited Fantasy League Sync
Fantasy Start/Sit Line-Up Optimizer & Waiver Wire
WR-CB & OL-DL Matchups, PFF Player Grades, & Premium Stats 2.0 Tools
Nathan Jahnkes Rankings - #1 Most Accurate Last 70 Weeks
PFF Best Bets, Player Props, & Power Ranking Tools
NFL Mock Draft Sim with Trades & Draft Grades

Already have a subscription? Log In

Betting Featured Tools

  • PFF's Best Bets Tool reveals the bets PFF's data and algorithms give the biggest edge to within spread, total, player prop, and moneyline markets.

    Available with

  • PFF's Player Props Tool reveals betting opportunities within player prop markets.

    Available with

  • Power Rankings are PFF’s NFL power ratings based on weekly player grades in each facet of play. These power rankings are adjusted based on coach, quarterback and the market each season.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NFL game.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NCAA game.

    Available with

Subscriptions

Unlock the 2023 Fantasy Draft Kit, with League Sync, Live Draft Assistant, PFF Grades & Data Platform that powers all 32 Pro Teams

$31 Draft Kit Fee + $8.99/mo
OR
$89.88/yr + FREE Draft Kit