Late-week betting action isn’t the best approach if long-term profitability is the goal. Game spreads and totals become increasingly sharp closer to kickoff, which is why betting game lines early in the week is the best approach.
If betting early in the week isn’t an option, then targeting other markets where lines aren’t stale is key. Beating these markets takes a different approach than those focused solely on the game lines. We can take cues from bookmakers pricing the entire portfolio of offerings on a particular matchup. They arrive at a most likely path the game will travel and then use market dynamics to sharpen the number. In some way, game lines feed derivatives, player props and most other offerings under that matchup umbrella.
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We can start by seeing if there are any game lines we disagree with and utilize a couple of different approaches if so.
Mispriced scenarios should be mispriced even worse further downstream as errors compound. Or, if the game line is only subtly off, it's smart to find where its errors are the most drastic.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pushed us slightly further into the black after their first-half parlay hit against the Arizona Cardinals. Despite my 3-5 record, the plus price targets have paid off slightly from a units won perspective, so we are up +2.29 units to start the season. Using these approaches, let's find the best last-minute NFL bets ahead of Week 4.
This game sets up for two likely outcomes — either the total goes over and the Cowboys roll to a covered victory, or the game goes under and the Panthers cover and potentially win outright. It’s hard to see the Panthers keeping pace with the Cowboys in a shootout environment, so the Panthers need to have success stopping the Cowboys offense in order to keep this game close.