• Plus-money angle: Alt passing totals and spreads can get you anywhere between +200 and +300 for Mahomes passing yards near his prop combined with Chiefs near their spread.
• Running it back: Judah Fortgang's same-game parlays gave a $100 bettor an 86.1% ROI last year.
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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
The 2023 NFL season is finally upon us, so we’ll kick off another (hopefully) profitable season with a deep dive into the opening game — the Thursday Night Football clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions.
We’ll start with covering some tails and live angles and hit on some same-game parlays. For more of PFF's best bets ahead of Week 1, click here.
- As PFF’s Arjun Menon posted earlier this week, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has performed at an unfathomably dominant level in Week 1 games in his career — essentially twice as good as a traditional MVP season would be.
• Now, this is obviously a small sample, but it is also worth noting that this might be stickier than most one-week samples because Mahomes has always played in preseason games and Andy Reid, perhaps the game's best offensive mind, has his biggest edge in game-planning fresh off the offseason.
• Add in a matchup against a Lions pass defense that got demolished on drives when teams threw over expected last year — they allowed offenses to earn nearly 3 points per drive — and this figures to be another classic Week 1 game in which Mahomes and the Chiefs explodes.
• Sure, the Lions defense improved over the offseason, but the base rate of success was low, and no defense is a match for Mahomes — especially not in Week 1.
• Bet: The Mahomes over 2.5 touchdowns at + 115 is in play, but if the Chiefs cover the spread, it is in all likelihood on the back of another dominant performance from Mahomes and the Chiefs offense, and alt passing totals and spreads can get you anywhere between +200 and +300 for Mahomes passing yards near his prop combined with Chiefs near their spread.