- Michael Penix Jr. is set to leap over his betting lines: The Falcons‘ starting quarterback stands as one of just four passers with a yardage projection differential of more than 300 yards, while his touchdown projection lands 3.83 scores above the line’s expectation.
- Ride the wave of Marvin Mims Jr.‘s late-season breakout: The young Broncos receiver earned the fourth-highest PFF receiving grade (89.7) from Week 11 through the end of the 2024 regular season.
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Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
Every NFL season brings with it another opportunity for players to put themselves on the map. 2025 is set to be an explosive campaign, and these are the names you need to watch in betting markets that are poised for a breakout season.
Odds sourced from FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook
QB Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons
- Line: 3,350.5 passing yards and 18.5 passing touchdowns
- PFF Projection: 3,659.94 passing yards and 22.33 passing touchdowns
It’s no secret that the Falcons' path to the postseason runs through their young quarterback, Michael Penix Jr. After taking over as the starter in Week 16 last season, Penix showcased his high-upside ability as a passer, earning the eighth-highest PFF passing grade (84.0) among qualifying signal-callers over that span.
Although his three-game sample isn’t much to make conclusions from, his fantastic marks in PFF’s stable quarterback metrics speak volumes for his talent. Of the seven key stable metrics, Penix finished above the 90th percentile in all but one. That includes 98th-percentile grades from a clean pocket (94.9) and on standard dropbacks (92.0).
As PFF’s Jon Macri highlighted, the Falcons' offense is well-equipped with playmakers. Having a solid run game headlined by Bijan Robinson will take pressure off the young quarterback, and a solid receiving corps featuring Drake London will ensure he has reliable outlets.
PFF’s projections place Penix well above his betting lines. He stands as one of just four passers with a yardage difference of more than 300 yards, while his touchdown projection lands 3.83 scores above the line’s expectation — the biggest difference of any quarterback for 2025.
Pick: Over 3,350.5 passing yards (-114) and Over 18.5 passing touchdowns (-120)
WR Marvin Mims Jr., Denver Broncos
- Line: 550.5 receiving yards
- PFF Projection: 733.29 receiving yards
Even with his immense talent, Mims spent most of his early career profiling as a one-trick deep-ball threat. That changed in the back half of 2024, when the young receiver became a more versatile weapon while being heavily involved in the screen game. That adjustment led to a late-season breakout for Mims, who earned the fourth-highest PFF receiving grade (89.7) among receivers from Week 11 through the end of the regular season.
Mims' threat percentage nearly doubled from 15.6% over the first year and a half of his career to 29.8% over the last eight weeks of 2024. With more looks near the line of scrimmage, Mims saw his average depth of target plummet and his yards after the catch explode. No player with 25 or more receiving snaps had more yards after catch per reception (14.4) than Mims over that span.
Highest PFF Receiving Grades | Weeks 11-18, 2024
With more usage in the short game, he is even more effective as a deep threat. During Mims' late-season breakout, 15-plus-yard receptions accounted for 25% of his catches, including his 93-yard score in Week 13 against the Browns.
Increased volume and amplified home-run ability are a big reason why 2025 will be Mims’ biggest yet. With a PFF projection of more than 730 yards, the Broncos receiver should sail past his 550.5-yard line.
Pick: Over 550.5 receiving yards (+110)
RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
- Line: 850.5 rushing yards
- PFF Projection: 968.27 rushing yards
The Bengals' offense undoubtedly flows through the arm of Joe Burrow. Even still, it's not only Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins who benefit. Defenses rarely loaded the box against Cincinnati's pass-heavy scheme in 2024. Among running backs with 200 or more carries, Brown saw the second-lowest percentage of eight or more men in the box (26.64%).
| Name | Team | Attempts | Attempts 8-man+ | 8-man+ % |
| Bijan Robinson | Falcons | 304 | 70 | 23.03% |
| Chase Brown | Bengals | 229 | 61 | 26.64% |
| Rico Dowdle | Cowboys | 235 | 64 | 27.23% |
| Breece Hall | Jets | 209 | 58 | 27.75% |
| Bucky Irving | Buccaneers | 207 | 60 | 28.99% |
The Bengals' offensive line struggled at times to generate push and create running lanes, even against light boxes, ranking 17th in yards provided before contact per attempt to backs (1.6). Luckily, Brown was able to create for himself, racking up more than 500 yards after contact against boxes with seven or fewer defenders. That second effort allowed him to nearly capture his first 1,000-yard season in year two, falling just 10 yards short.
While Cincinnati's offseason adjustments up front may not profile as massive improvements, starting new faces at both guard positions in third-round pick Dylan Fairchild and veteran Lucas Patrick should be marked improvements over last year. Should this offensive line be able to cash in on the ground against light boxes, Brown has proven he can make it happen.
Brown spent the first half of the 2024 season competing with Zack Moss for carries, which hindered his production. Prior to Moss going down, Brown tallied just 9.75 carries per game through Week 8. In his following eight games, he nearly doubled that volume to 18.88 carries per game. With Moss still recovering and expected to start the year on the NFI list, Brown is likely to continue that trend.
Given the situation, it isn’t unreasonable to expect Brown to surpass his 968-yard projection and push for his first 1,000-yard campaign (+170).
Pick: Over 850.5 rushing yards (-114)
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