NFL Anytime Touchdown Bets: Travis Kelce, Zack Moss among best Week 9 bets

2T1BGA6 Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) reacts after a play during the first half of an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos Thursday, Oct. 12, 2023, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Peter Aiken)

• TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs: Kelce has been dominant in the red zone for years. The Chiefs star ranks sixth in separation grade and 12th in overall grade in the red zone.

• RB Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts: Moss and the Colts' run game have themselves one of the most favorable matchups of the week. They take on the Carolina Panthers run defense, which has surrendered the second-worst rushing success rate and ranks dead last in EPA allowed per rush.

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TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

This is the cheapest we’ve gotten a Travis Kelce anytime touchdown in quite some time, even though the Kansas City Chiefs possess a 26-point total against the Miami Dolphins.

The Dolphins have struggled to defend tight ends this year. They have allowed the fifth-most receptions to players at the position, as well as the highest success rate.

Kelce has been dominant in the red zone for years. The Chiefs star ranks sixth in separation grade and 12th in overall grade in the red zone. As Patrick Mahomes‘ favorite target in a favorable matchup, look for Kelce to get into the end zone in Week 9.


RB Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts

Moss has been a revelation for the Indianapolis Colts this season, ranking top-five in expected points added (EPA) per rush and rushing yards over expected.

For this reason, Moss has worked his way into a timeshare with Jonathan Taylor, with the two essentially tied for snaps since Taylor returned from injury.

Moss and the Colts' run game have themselves one of the most favorable matchups of the week — they take on the Carolina Panthers run defense, which has surrendered the second-worst rushing success rate and ranks dead last in EPA allowed per rush.

• At +170 odds, Moss screams value for his anytime touchdown prop, given his current role within the offense.


Long shot: TE Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys

 The Philadelphia Eagles rank last among teams in EPA allowed per play on targets to tight ends, and they rank bottom-five in team coverage grade and success rate allowed on these targets.

This should mean plenty of looks for the emerging Jake Ferguson, who ranks seventh at his position in PFF grade in the red zone, an area in which Dak Prescott has traditionally loved to target his tight ends.

In what should be an up-tempo game with plenty of scoring, look for Dak to find Ferguson in a very winnable matchup.

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