• RB Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars: The Houston Texans run defense has struggled this year, allowing 4.0 yards per carry despite facing the fourth-most attempts. The group is also dead last in PFF run-defense grade in goal-to-go scenarios, almost 15 points worse than 31st place.
• WR Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders: While it has been a bit of a slow start to the season for Jahan Dotson, his usage and underlying metrics suggest that it is only a matter of time before he breaks out.
• Running it back: Judah Fortgang's same-game parlays gave a $100 bettor an 86.1% ROI in 2022.
RB Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars (-105, BetMGM)
• As most rushing scores come from mere yards of the end zone, one of the main variables is simply how many opportunities a team will have from close range.
• This week, the Jaguars have an implied total of 28 points, suggesting there will be plenty of opportunities for the Jaguars to score from within range.
• The Houston Texans run defense has struggled so far this year, allowing 4.0 yards per carry despite facing the fourth-most attempts — the attempts are further evidence to be bullish on Ettiene in Week 3. Houston is dead last in PFF run-defense grade in goal-to-go scenarios, almost 15 points worse than 31st place.
• Shopping for price matters here, as almost every book has this price at around -180 (64% implied probability), whereas this bet here is just about 51% implied probability, suggesting a market inefficiency and room to capitalize.
WR Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders (+300, FanDuel)
• While it has been a bit of a slow start to the season for Jahan Dotson, his usage and underlying metrics suggest that it is only a matter of time before he breaks out.
• Since entering the league last season, Dotson has been one of the league's best receivers in the red zone. He falls firmly in the top right of the above graph, as he excels at separating in the red zone and coming down with contested catches in the red zone.
• Given this skill set, it is easier to understand why Dotson scored seven times in an injury-shortened rookie season. Especially with tight end Logan Thomas going down, Dotson is primed to be Washington’s main pass target in the red zone in Week 3.
• In a spot where Washington is expected to pass against a defense that cannot generate pressure, look for Sam Howell and company to move the ball well and for Howell to have ample opportunities to target Dotson in the red zone.
Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers (+800, DraftKings)
Andy Dalton produced the ninth-highest PFF grade in QB sneak situations last season, and those plays produced a near-85% success rate.
The Panthers noticed this data point, as even before Bryce Young’s injury, Dalton was taking the QB snaps on fourth-and-shorts. This suggests the team is comfortable and actively wants to use Dalton in these short-yardage spots.
Against a Seattle defense that has allowed 30 points in back-to-back games, there’s a decent chance Carolina gets the ball in a goal-to-go scenario and calls on Dalton to punch it in.