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Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.
Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the most suitable markets for a given thesis or angle.
The Philadelphia Eagles dominate the Detroit Lions‘ man coverage
One of PFF’s studies in 2022 examined how coverage types interact with matchups and found that, in man coverage, talent matters more than it does in zone coverage. The better players win in man, whether on offense or defense.
The Lions will be down virtually their entire secondary in this one, still without D.J. Reed, Kerby Joseph and Terrion Arnold, with Amik Robertson questionable. Yet despite those injuries, the Lions have led the league in man coverage rate over the last few weeks. Against lesser opponents, this has not been a problem, but the Eagles present a completely different challenge.
Eagles receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have been dominant against man coverage, with Brown ranking fourth at the position in yards per route run against these looks, and Smith not far behind while separating at an elite rate.
Perhaps because of how consistently his receivers separate, Jalen Hurts has excelled against man coverage, producing nearly 0.5 EPA per play.
I’ll be on the Eagles, their alternate lines, Hurts’ alternate props and SGPs built around the Eagles passing offense finding success.
The Denver Broncos defense is no match for peak Patrick Mahomes
The Broncos defense has been one of the best units in the NFL once again this season, ranking near the top in nearly every metric used to quantify defensive play. However, as PFF’s research has shown, certain quarterback traits can impact their performance in specific matchups. Quarterbacks who scramble are far better at mitigating the effects of a difficult defensive matchup.
Mahomes has returned to his old scrambling form, doing so at one of the highest rates in the NFL this year — after scrambling far less in 2024 — and producing at his usual, ridiculous level when he takes off.
That should translate into plenty of offensive success despite the matchup.
I’ll be on the Chiefs, their team-total overs, alternate lines and Mahomes props.
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