We went 2-0 last week, getting some closing-line value on New Orleans -9.5 (to the point where our PFF Greenline model liked Chicago +11 at the close…) as well as on the Buffalo -0.5/Tampa Bay -1.5 teaser — the former of which did not cover the actual spread of the game. We are now 38-33-1 (53.5%) on the year.
There are only four games this week, and we’ll again break them all down. Tampa Bay and New Orleans are playing for the third time, while a couple of AFC road teams have some unexpected matchups happening in the divisional round. Enjoy!
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-7)
Point (Eric Eager): Going into the week, we had the Packers as about 7.5 points better than the average team on a neutral field, while the Rams were only about 3.9 points better. The downgrade from Jared Goff to John Wolford is significant (about 3.5 points), and the downgrade from Wolford to whatever Goff can do with a broken thumb is probably non-zero. Add in Green Bay coming off a bye and the Rams possibly being without Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp, and this is a play I think you have to make with the Packers.