Betting News & Analysis

Data-driven player prop picks for Week 17: Jared Goff, Najee Harris, Justin Fields

Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) runs upfield past Miami Dolphins linebacker Melvin Ingram (6) for a gain in the fourth quarter at Soldier Field. Miami defeated Chicago 35-32. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

Bet Jared Goff over 267.5 passing yards: Coming into this week, the Detroit Lions rank fourth in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per pass attempt. The Chicago Bears rank dead last in EPA allowed per pass play on defense. 

• Bet Justin Fields over 70.5 rushing yards: The Lions have given up the second-most yards to quarterback scrambles this season. Justin Fields has added the most yards on scrambles this season. 

Click here to bet with BetMGM— new users receive first-bet insurance up to $1,000 and a free year of PFF+

Estimated reading time: 2 mins

After having success giving out three player prop picks for quarterbacks and three player prop picks for running backs in separate articles, we are combining the best of those props into a single article from here on out.

The running back props finished up 7.2 units, and the quarterback props finished up 5.2 units. We hope to continue that success going forward.

BET: Jared Goff Over 267.5 Passing Yards (-115 DraftKings; playable to 271.5)

• Lions have a huge advantage in the passing game: Coming into this week, the Detroit Lions rank fourth in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per pass attempt. The Chicago Bears rank dead last in EPA allowed per pass play on defense. 

• Dome Goff: Jared Goff excels at home and in a dome — he's generated 0.20 EPA per play in dome games this year and a 0.08 EPA per play elsewhere. Better yet, he will get the league’s worst pass defense inside a dome in Week 17.

BET: Najee Harris Under 74.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-115 DraftKings; playable to 72.5)

• Harris has struggled this season: Among 37 qualifying running backs, Najee Harris ranks 35th in rushing yards over expected (RYOE). His 3.58 yards per carry is -0.79 yards less than he's been expected to average (4.34). 

• Ravens run defense is strong: Since trading for Roquan Smith, the Ravens run defense has ranked second in the NFL in rush success rate. They also are fifth in PFF run-defense grade over that time.

BET: Justin Fields Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115 DraftKings; playable to 72.5)

• The Lions can’t stop scrambles: The Lions have given up the second-most yards to quarterback scrambles this season. Justin Fields has added the most yards on scrambles this season. 

• Fields usually goes over: Fields has gone over his rushing prop in five of the last six weeks. He racked up 147 rushing yards against Detroit earlier in the season.

Betting Featured Tools
  • PFF's Best Bets Tool reveals the bets PFF's data and algorithms give the biggest edge to within spread, total, player prop, and moneyline markets.

    Available with

  • PFF's Player Props Tool reveals betting opportunities within player prop markets.

    Available with

  • Power Rankings are PFF’s NFL power ratings based on weekly player grades in each facet of play. These power rankings are adjusted based on coach, quarterback and the market each season.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NFL game.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NCAA game.

    Available with

Subscriptions

Unlock the 2023 Fantasy Draft Kit, with League Sync, Live Draft Assistant, PFF Grades & Data Platform that powers all 32 Pro Teams

$31 Draft Kit Fee + $8.99/mo
OR
$89.88/yr + FREE Draft Kit