College Football Week 9 Best Bets: Back Caleb Williams and USC to dominate Cal

• Troy -5.5: The Troy defense is the best unit Texas State will have faced this year, as they rank 20th in adjusted run defense and 15th in adjusted pass defense. And one or two extra stops here and there should be enough for Troy in this one, given the real weakness of this Texas State defense.

• USC -10.5: The thing that sets Caleb Williams apart is his ability to extend plays, which is very impactful at this level. And against a team with a weak pass rush, there should be the opportunity for him to make play after play in Week 9.

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We are getting to the business end of the 2023 college football season.

Michigan and Georgia are starting to separate themselves from the field, and Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy is now leading the race for the Heisman Trophy, taking over from Washington's Michael Penix Jr. after the Wolverines' 49-0 demolition of Michigan State in Week 8.

It is hard to say that McCarthy has been the best quarterback in college football this year — a distinction that likely belongs to Penix — but the results speak for themselves. Michigan continues to put up explosive plays in the passing game while opposing teams are desperate to stop their rushing attack. 

Outside of garbage time, only run-heavy offenses Air Force, Iowa, Northern Illinois and Liberty have faced more eight- or nine-man boxes on early downs than Michigan. They have taken advantage of that, passing for 10 yards per attempt for a 60% success rate on those plays.

It will be very interesting to see how Michigan fares against Penn State in a few weeks, as the Nittany Lions will present their biggest test of the season.

Enjoy it while it lasts — the season goes quickly. Here are the best bets to make for Week 9.

Troy @ Texas State: Troy -5.5 (-110 BetMGM)

The Texas State defense faced a tough challenge against Louisiana in Week 6,  and the Ragin' Cajuns ultimately moved the ball with ease throughout the contest, exposing a Bobcats defense that has weaknesses that have been hidden by the soft schedule of offenses it has faced. 

Louisiana won by only four points (as a 1.5-point favorite), but quarterback Zeon Chriss was tackled at the 1-yard line on the second-to-last play before deciding to take a knee rather than trying to score again. Meanwhile, the Louisiana defense — a bottom-25 outfit against the pass after adjusting for schedule — shored up in a big way in the second half after badly struggling in the first, giving their offense a chance to take over the game. 

Troy is not quite as strong as Louisiana on offense, but they do possess a well-rounded attack, which Texas State has not seen much of this season.

Troy quarterback Gunnar Watson has multiple 300-yard passing games this season, one coming against a very stout James Madison defense. Running back Kimani Vidal has two 200-yard games so far and has scored multiple touchdowns in three of his last four outings. 

The Troy defense is the best unit Texas State will have faced so far this year, as they rank 20th in adjusted run defense and 15th in adjusted pass defense. And one or two extra stops here and there should be enough for Troy in this one, given the real weakness of this Texas State defense.

USC @ California: USC -10.5 (-105 FanDuel)

Caleb Williams may not be the otherworldly quarterback many thought he was coming into the season, but he is still an extremely good playmaker and is a constant threat to move the ball. And this is a good opportunity for him to get back on track after playing some of the nation’s best defensive units.

In his last two games, Williams has gone up against Notre Dame and Utah, two excellent defenses that rank third and 18th, respectively, in schedule-adjusted passing defense. Arizona gave him a test in Week 6, too, but the Wildcats are better than their overall numbers suggest.

The good news for the presumptive No. 1 overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft is that after three consecutive tough games, he will now get a California team that ranks 123rd in adjusted passing defense.

Cal's struggles have been mainly due to a lack of pressure generated by the pass rush. The Golden Bears have managed to pressure the opposing quarterback on just 29% of their snaps this season, 84th in the nation, despite playing a schedule of easier offensive lines. They now face the eighth-highest-graded pass-blocking unit in the country, so things could get tough on the back end.

The thing that sets Caleb Williams apart is his ability to extend plays, which is very impactful at this level. And against a team with a weak pass rush, there should be the opportunity for him to make play after play in Week 9.