Week 8 College Football Pick: Bet Old Dominion -2.5 vs Georgia Southern

Conway, South Carolina, USA; Old Dominion Monarchs running back Blake Watson (2) runs the ball against the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers in the fourth quarter at Brooks Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports

• Bet Old Dominion -2.5 vs. Georgia Southern: ODU's balanced offensive attack will be problematic for the Eagles, who give up the sixth-highest EPA per rush and are college football's 29th-worst pass defense in yards per coverage snap.

• PFF Greenline's ‘true number' is Old Dominion -3.4.

• Three remains the most important betting number in the NFL and college football, so fire away!

Last updated: Thursday Oct. 20, 11:30 a.m.

Estimated reading time: 3 mins


We took a hit last week with both bets falling short. The Under 55.5 in Ole Miss vs Auburn never had a chance after a 21-0 first quarter from the Rebels. The thought process behind the bet was that neither team would be able to pass the ball — and that was correct — but it wasn't required as Tank Bigsby ran for 180 yards and Ole Miss had three separate players break 100 yards rushing. Our second bet, Kent State +8 at Toledo, looked like an easy cover when the Golden Flashes took a 21-0 lead after just six minutes. But from there it was all Toledo, who ended up winning by three touchdowns. Quite the turnaround.

Still, this weekly preview is 7-5 on the season for +1.5 units and a 11.36% ROI. 

As with all sports that have a definitive season with a known number of matches for each team, there comes a time when the betting market starts to become significantly sharper because of accumulated data. We are fast approaching that time with college football, so edges against the betting lines are going to be tougher to find going forward. 

Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion

Knowing the value of each point and betting around key numbers (three and seven) is important: and if your ‘true’ or ‘fair’ number is the other side of one of the aforementioned key numbers to the betting market, then fire away because the value of the point you are crossing is worth significantly more than the cost of the bet.

The power of 3: It's the most important number in both college and NFL, because games are settled by three points at the highest rate, and this week we get to bet Old Dominion -2.5, an edge compared to PFF Greenline's ‘true’ number of 3.4.

While these offenses are fairly matched, Old Dominion's advantage is that Georgia Southern has been hard pressed to stop anyone from moving the ball: The Eagles give up the 6th-highest EPA per rushing play, the 4th-worst average depth of tackle and 0.119 EPA per play on passing downs, where they are college football's 29th-worst defense in yards allowed per coverage snap.

Old Dominion runs a balanced attack and should have its way with this Georgia Southern defense.

Best Bet: Old Dominion -2.5 (-110) 

 

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