• Bet Auburn-Ole Miss u55.5: Expect pass rush to rule the day. Biggest danger to the under might be defensive touchdowns.
• Auburn allowed a pressure rate above 30% to inferior defenses in Kentucky and Troy; the Tigers will chew up the clock with the run game.
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Last updated: Fri. Oct. 14, 9:30 a.m.
Estimated reading time: 4 mins
A clean sweep last week has taken this weekly article to 7-3 on the season for +3.7 units and a 33.64% ROI. Michigan posted a shutout in the second half against Indiana to keep it comfortably under the 59.5 total, while Central Michigan’s offense only notched 16 points against Ball State, which covered the +7.5 with ease.
Auburn @ Ole Miss
• The total for this game is plenty high: Sitting in the mid-50s, with two pass-protection units that should have significant disadvantages against the opposing pass-rush units. Auburn’s offensive line has failed to protect its QB against superior pass-rushing units, and while Ole Miss has played a soft schedule and likely is not as dominant as its grade and win % suggest, the Rebels are still more than capable of getting after Robby Ashford. The same can be said for the Auburn pass rush, the best unit the Rebels will have faced this season, when they already have allowed a pressure rate above 30% to both Kentucky and Troy. Ole Miss will succeed in the run game, but that will chew up the clock, and Auburn’s path to success is a lot tougher. The biggest danger to the under is defensive touchdowns.
Best Bet: Under 55.5
Kent State @ Toledo
• The Golden Flashes are underrated and have a real path to success here: These two teams grade similarly on offense, and although Toledo has an apparent advantage on defense, the big difference is the strength of schedule. Kent State has played multiple high-end teams in Washington, Oklahoma (at least at the time) and Georgia, and were relatively competitive in all three games, something which is not quite reflected in the final scores. Toledo, on the other hand, has played a real soft schedule of offenses in Central Michigan, San Diego State, UMass and the LIU Sharks, allowing the Rockets to have an elite-level defensive grade. This is the best offense they have played since losing by almost 60 points to Ohio State. The other big positive is the fact that you can get the key number of seven on your side with this spread. PFF Greenline makes Toledo a 6.8-point favorite — and we are getting 8. Kent State could win this straight up, and the Money Line is not without value.
Best Bet: Kent State +8