Island games are the highlight of any NFL week for betting enthusiasts. As the industry continues to grow, some of the most discussed moments belong to these single-game opportunities.
We have hit a cold stretch with our same-game parlays and haven’t had a clean sweep of player props since Week 1. Our overall record is 38-49, but with bets focused on plus-price offerings, we are down slightly at -1.06 units through the first five weeks.
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Props are priced for a player's median stat projection in a simple, over-or-under, two-sided market. For historical context, we saw 53% of player props hit the under, regardless of the category, during the 2020 season. Things have started a little differently this season, though, as far fewer unders have hit compared to years past.
A better way to quantify an edge is by utilizing PFF's player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet. Let’s dive into the best player props to bet ahead of Thursday Night Football.
QB Tom Brady Over 2.5 TDs (+105)
Brady has been inconsistent when it comes to his per-game touchdown production this season, with three games featuring four or more touchdowns and two games with one or fewer. This week, there is a lot to like about both his matchup against the Eagles and his touchdown prop.
Through five weeks, Nick Sirianni’s squad has primarily lined up in Cover 3 with some Cover 4 and Cover 2 mixed in. Brady's grade against those coverages? A cool 90.5, fourth in the NFL.
And while the Eagles' defensive front currently sits third in pass-rush grade at 80.1 and ninth in pressure percentage at 39.9%, the G.O.A.T. is still second in the NFL in passing grade under pressure.
PFF’s player props tool gives Brady a 60.6% chance of throwing three or more touchdowns, making this plus-money prop a positive expected value bet.
RB Leonard Fournette Over 12.5 carries (-122)
After splitting snaps and carries almost evenly with Ronald Jones last season, Fournette has officially taken control of the Buccaneers’ backfield in 2021. His 76.9 rushing grade ranks ninth among all running backs with at least 50 carries through five weeks.