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Jahnke: Best NFL Week 17 player prop bets

Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) throws a pass against the Minnesota Vikings during the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 17 is here, and it's time to take advantage of some high-value player props. 

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My picks went 3-0 last week. Devin Singletary only needed the first three minutes of the game to get over 11.5 receiving yards, making the next 57 minutes of the game stress-free. Ja’Marr Chase took a little bit longer to get over 63.5 receiving yards, but he made it by the middle of the third quarter and finished the day with 125 total receiving yards. Josh Jacobs finished off the clean sweep in the later window, as he only caught one pass, which was less than his 3.5-reception prop. It probably helped that his only catch went for a five-yard loss while another target was an interception that led directly to a touchdown.

This article's record now stands at 25-17 on the season

Leverage PFF's player props tool to find the most valuable bets to make in Week 17.

QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: Over 2.5 touchdowns (+162)

The Baltimore Ravens defense has dealt with several injuries on defense in recent weeks, and opposing quarterbacks have taken advantage. Joe Burrow just had the fourth-most passing yards in NFL history against their defense while he and Aaron Rodgers combined for seven touchdowns against them over the last two weeks.

Stafford gets his turn against the Ravens defense this week, and he’s thrown for three or more touchdowns in over half of his games this season. Betting the over on his touchdown prop is safer than most quarterbacks in any given week because of how much Los Angeles throws in the red zone. Typically, teams throw 44% of the time within four yards of the end zone, but the Rams have thrown at a 65.8% rate. They are similarly one of the most pass-heavy teams within 10 yards or 20 yards of the red zone, too. As long as the Rams offense is doing well, Stafford will be throwing touchdowns.

He is particularly well-suited against the Ravens' defense. Baltimore uses man coverage at a top-five rate in the NFL, and it hasn’t changed in recent weeks despite Baltimore's injuries. Stafford has thrived against defenses that use a lot of man coverage this season, which makes him a safer play this week than most.

Matthew Stafford vs. Man or Zone defenses in 2021
Dropbacks PFF Pass Grade YPA TD/Att INT/Att
Man 122 87.5 9.3 11.5% 0.9%
Zone 401 71.9 8.2 3.1% 2.9%

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