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Jahnke: Best NFL Week 16 player prop bets

Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28) runs the ball for a first down against the Cleveland Browns during the first quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 16 is here, and it's time to take advantage of some high-value player props. 

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My picks went 3-0 last week. The Dallas Cowboys had a relatively easy victory, as expected, against the New York Giants. CeeDee Lamb led Dallas with nine targets, but that only led to six catches for 50 yards, leaving him well below his 72.5 receiving yardage prop. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine played more than expected due to Julio Jones injury. He also led his team in targets but was held to four catches for 32 yards, keeping him under his 35.5 receiving yardage prop. Finally, Aaron Rodgers was able to take advantage of a Baltimore Ravens defense that was well below 100%, throwing for three touchdowns, putting him over his 2.5 touchdown prop.

This article's record now stands at 22-17 on the season

Leverage PFF's player props tool to find the most valuable bets to make in Week 16.

RB Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders: Under 3.5 receptions (-124)

Jacobs' receiving opportunities are perfectly aligned with the Raiders' game script. He has three or fewer receptions in every Raiders win, but four or more in every Las Vegas loss. This week, the Raiders face a Denver Broncos team without their starting quarterback. The Raiders are slight favorites.

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Even if Denver comes out ahead, this could be the game where Jacobs has fewer than four catches in a loss. Denver has allowed 59 receptions to running backs this year, ranking eighth-best among NFL teams. Jalen Richard is the only Raiders back who played last week but didn’t show up on the injury report. Anytime he’s played, he’s decreased Jacobs' routes run, which decreases Jacobs' reception opportunities. Richard already had COVID earlier this month, so he should play this week. All of this adds up to Jacobs producing well on the ground but not so much in the air.

Josh Jacobs per game statistics this season
Metric With Jalen Richard Without Jalen Richard
Routes Run 17.7 25
Receptions 3.1 5


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