Island games are the highlight of any NFL week for betting enthusiasts. And as the industry continues to grow, some of the most discussed moments belong to these single-game opportunities.
Leverage PFF's predictive betting models and player props tools to identify the best betting opportunities in the Week 15 Monday Night Football contest between the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings.
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PLAYER PROPS
One of the easiest transitions into sports betting is through player props, as fantasy applications help evaluate betting opportunities.
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing PFF's player props tool, as the ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet. Let’s dive into the best player props to bet for Monday Night Football.
QB Justin Fields: Over 1.5 passing TDs
Fields went just 18-of-33 for 224 yards in Week 14, putting up the second-lowest single-game grade of his rookie season in the process (49.6). However, the silver lining is that he threw two touchdown passes for the first time in his NFL career.
Big plays broke right early for the Bears, yet they still couldn’t cover against the Packers in prime time. The good news is that things could prove to be easier for Fields in Week 15, as Minnesota has fielded a league-average defensive unit in 2021.
PFF’s betting model leans toward the Bears on the spread because the Vikings are seemingly incapable of playing a game that doesn’t come down to the wire. If a big play breaks through early for Chicago on Monday night, Fields should be able to coast to this plus-price payout.
While it isn’t the most likely scenario, PFF finds a 5.5% edge at the current price at a 35.5% break-even percentage.
TE Cole Kmet: Under 30.5 receiving yards
Kmet has held to his high on-field usage, running a route on 75% of dropbacks while playing almost 82% of his team's offensive snaps. However, the target share has started to drop off, with Kmet at a 16% team share over the past four weeks.
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