Data-driven QB prop picks for Week 14: Tua Tagovailoa, Kyle Allen and more

• Bet Kyle Allen Under 190.5 Passing Yards (-125 on DraftKings; playable to 188.5): The Cowboys' defense excels against the pass, and the Texans' offense struggles mightily to move the ball through the air.

• Bet Tua Tagovailoa Over 40.5 Yards Longest Completion (-115 DraftKings; playable to -120): The Chargers are susceptible to big plays, and Tyreek Hill is poised to beat them for big yardage.

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Last updated: Saturday, Dec. 10 at 10 pm ET

Looking ahead to Week 14, we can use a variety of different data points for betting quarterback prop bets.

BET: Houston Texans QB Kyle Allen Under 190.5 Passing Yards (-125 on DraftKings; playable to 188.5)

• Houston Texans Have a Passing Game Disadvantage: The Texans rank 31st in expected points added (EPA) per pass and are going up against a Cowboys defense that has been the third-best against the pass this season.

BET: Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa Over 40.5 Yards Longest Completion (-115 DraftKings; playable to -120)

• Tua Leads the League in Explosive Rate: Among all qualifying quarterbacks, Tagovailoa leads the league in passes that gain 20-plus yards, with over 11% of his passes hitting that mark.

• Los Angeles Chargers Defense is Susceptible to Explosives: The Chargers defense gives up explosive passes at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Last week, Davante Adams scored on a 45-yard touchdown pass against them. We could see Tyreek Hill do something similar this week.

BET: Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+110 DraftKings; playable to +100)

• Cousins Struggles Against Man: While he's an above-average quarterback against zone coverage, Cousins has been the third-least efficient quarterback against man coverage this season.

• The Detroit Lions Play Man Frequently: The Lions' defense plays man coverage on 45% of passing plays — the third-highest rate in the league, making this a tough matchup for Cousins.