Jahnke: Best NFL Week 10 player prop bets | NFL and NCAA Betting Picks | PFF

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Jahnke: Best NFL Week 10 player prop bets

Detroit Lions running back D'Andre Swift (32) runs against Los Angeles Rams cornerback Donte' Deayon (21) during the second half at the SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. on Sunday, Oct. 24, 2021.

NFL Week 10 is here, which means it's time to take advantage of some high-value player props. 


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My picks went 2-1 last week. Myles Gaskin flew well over 12.5 carries, reaching 20. Mecole Hardman failed to reach 3.5 receptions, as he only caught three passes. Unfortunately for us, C.J. Uzomah finished with four receptions, meaning he went over his 2.5-reception prop while we bet the under. This article's record now stands at 10-11 on the season.

Leverage PFF's player props tool to find the most valuable bets to make in Week 10.

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RB D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions: Over 11.5 carries (-114)

Swift has seen over 11.5 carries in each of the last three games — all losses. The Lions weren’t all that effective running the ball, but they did it anyway.

His playing time has been relatively stable, playing 70-80% of Detroit's offensive snaps in each of the last five games. He played in 87% of Detroit's offensive snaps through three quarters last week, as Jamaal Williams was out due to injury. The Lions lost the game 44-6, so the backups played the vast majority of the fourth quarter. Williams hasn’t been practicing, and this game should be closer than a 38-point blowout. This could be the game where Detroit uses Swift the most.

The Pittsburgh Steelers defense is unlikely to discourage Detroit from running the ball. Three weeks ago, they faced the Los Angeles Rams, who have played even better against the run, and Swift still finished with 13 carries. The Lions have run the ball at least 15 times with their running backs each week.

If the Lions are able to keep this game close, Swift should be well over the 11.5-carry mark. Even if Detroit loses in another blowout while Pittsburgh holds him to 2.0 yards per carry, Swift should still receive more than 11.5 carries.

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