This is it. The chaos of Sunday morning is only magnified when scouring through player props is introduced to your routine.
Over 800 player props are currently loaded into PFF’s prop tool, which doesn’t even model every single player prop offering currently available at all sportsbooks. Being able to quickly sift through the best and worst bets in an automated way is one of the easiest ways to cultivate sports betting success.
Due to the sheer volume of listings, player props are often the easiest bets to beat consistently. Books have a difficult time keeping up with late-breaking news and digesting how the latest information impacts every player expected to be on the field.
The opportunities are nearly endless in the prop market if you are set up to handle the information and have a process in place to identify the numbers that can be taken advantage of.
Using the PFF prop tool as a guide, let’s dive into the best values on the board for Sunday’s main slate of NFL action.
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New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara Over 5.5 Receptions
Our prop picks are hoping for some pass-catching running backs to take over in Week 1, and no one has been better in that department over the past three NFL seasons than Kamara. This pick is fairly obvious due to everyone’s expectation that Kamara is funneled targets as one of the only viable target options in the Saints’ passing offense.
The immediate concern is Jameis Winston‘s high average depth of target (ADOT) in addition to his low check-down percentage. In his career, Winston has thrown a check-down on 4.1% of his pass attempts — the league average in 2020 was 5.7%. The Saints’ have always manufactured passing game targets for Kamara, and it’s tough to see Sean Payton completely abandon this given the injury situation at the wide receiver position.
This looks like the perfect spot to ride the Kamara hype. He should be peppered with manufactured targets in Week 1 as the Packers' outside corners feast on the Saints’ receivers, who have one of the worst overall matchups according to PFF's WR/CB matchup chart. It’s the direction everyone is moving, but sometimes betting is about taking the free square as opposed to fighting the contrarian battle.